Middle Tennessee @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Tue, Oct 20, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F7 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

3-3 · Power #126

▲ winner

Final

Florida International

3-3 · Power #105

final

Closing spread

FIU -10.5

✓ MTSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 17–28 FIU

✗ FIU (79%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFIU -10

CloseFIU -10.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:23

Middle Tennessee at Florida International: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 20, 11:27 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFIU -10

0.5 → FIU

CloseFIU -10.5

0.5 pts toward Florida International

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened FIU -10 · closed FIU -10.5 · moved 0.5 toward FIUmodel FIU -14

model FIU -14

Oct 17line modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 45% (175 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFIU -10

CloseFIU -10.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MTSU	FIU	Over	Under	MTSU	FIU
BetMGMMGM	+10-110	-10-108	46.5-108	46.5-110	+310	-375
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+10-107	-10-113	46.5-110	46.5-110	+324	-410
BetRiversBetRivers	+10.5-115	-10.5-108	45.5-107	45.5-117	+320	-435
BetUSBetUS	+10-110	-10-110	46.5-110	46.5-110	+320	-400
BovadaBovada	+10-110	-10-110	46-105	46-115	+315	-420
DraftKingsDK	+10-105	-10-115	46.5-110	46.5-110	+320	-410
FanDuelFD	+10.5-122	-10.5+100	45.5-115	45.5-105	+320	-410
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+10-103	-10-109	46.5-108	46.5-108	+324	-410
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+10-110	-10-110	46-110	46-110	+313	-427

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. DraftKings’ row has FIU -10, while the closing line on this card (the close recorded for DraftKings) is FIU -10.5. Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

7 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	MTSU	FIU	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	+6.5-110	-6.5-108	28.5+220	28.5-300
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	23.5-105	23.5-115
BetRiversBetRivers	+8.5-162	-8.5+120	23.5-129	23.5-103
BetUSBetUS	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	23.5-105	23.5-115
BovadaBovada	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	23-115	23-105
DraftKingsDK	+6.5-115	-6.5-105	23.5-108	23.5-112
FanDuelFD	+6.5-110	-6.5-110	23.5-110	23.5-110

Last prices before kickoff from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FIU as a 10.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: MTSU won 26–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16 against an average line of 10.7; 46.8 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUFF vs AKR 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	16–24	L	U48.5
Very close	M-OH vs AKR 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	34–14	W	O47.5
Very close	SHSU vs LT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	9–3	L	U45.5
Very close	M-OH vs EMU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	44–30	W	O47.5
Very close	LIB vs NMSU 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	30–27	L	O48.5
Very close	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Very close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Very close	OHIO vs CMU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & rest	-10.5	34–20	W	O48.5
Very close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Very close	WMU vs BALL 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	42–0	W	U43

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU WWLLW	4-2	67%	1-2	3-2
FIU WLLWP	3-2-1	60%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; FIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU UUUOO	2-4	33%	3-3
FIU OUUUO	2-4	33%	3-3

Went over in Q4. Of 616 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	5-5 50%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%
FIU	6-4 60%	6-3-1 67%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MTSU 1–2 FIU FIU leads · 3 games since 2023 · FIU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 8 2025	Florida International 56 @ Middle Tennessee 30	MTSU -1.5	FIU W
Nov 30 2024	Middle Tennessee 24 @ Florida International 35	FIU -9.5	FIU W
Nov 11 2023	Florida International 6 @ Middle Tennessee 40	MTSU -10.5	MTSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−15.1 →−17.7▼ 2.6#130

FIU−10.0 →−7.7▲ 2.3#97

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MTSU

Longer bar = better

FIU

#91

Offense

◀ MTSU better

#113

#118

Defense

FIU better ▶

#15

+0.7 #25

Turnovers

◀ MTSU better

−0.2 #85

57 plays #137

Pace

FIU faster ▶

71 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: FIU defense

	MTSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #103	14.7 #9	FIU
Yards / play	5.64 #88	4.50 #12	FIU
PPA / play	+0.14 #71	−0.03 #18	FIU
Success rate	40% #101	35% #21	FIU

When FIU has the ball

Even matchup

	FIU off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.7 #122	28.3 #110	Even
Yards / play	5.36 #109	6.49 #126	Even
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.18 #110	Even
Success rate	39% #109	47% #125	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.5 #88	5.0 #121	10.5 #112	6.2 #67	6.2 #90	12.3 #84
FIU allowed	5.0 #76	2.5 #6	7.5 #17	3.5 #38	3.7 #14	7.2 #16

FIU scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	5.8 #79	5.7 #116	11.5 #103	4.7 #102	3.5 #133	8.2 #130
MTSU allowed	3.8 #44	9.0 #102	12.8 #77	7.5 #113	8.0 #109	15.5 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.