New Mexico State @ Sam Houston: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Wed, Oct 21, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Sam Houston · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

New Mexico State

2-4 · Power #119

▲ winner

Final

Sam Houston

1-5 · Power #124

final

Closing spread

NMSU -3

✓ NMSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

NMSU 25–23 SHSU

✓ NMSU (56%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNMSU -2.5

CloseNMSU -3

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:29

New Mexico State at Sam Houston: game recap

Made automatically from this game’s final numbers (Oct 22, 12:27 AM ET).

Transcript

New Mexico State beat Sam Houston, 30 to 24. Here’s what decided it. Sam Houston struck first, a 3-play, -3-yard touchdown drive. New Mexico State went up 14 to 10 just before halftime. Sam Houston went up 17 to 14 in the third quarter. The lead changed hands three times. Sam Houston’s touchdown with 4:00 left made it 30 to 24. Second quarter, 30 seconds left. Damante finds Williams for a 27-yard touchdown. That lifted New Mexico State’s win probability by 20 points. Third quarter, 15:00 left. Locke finds Burns for a 81-yard touchdown. That lifted Sam Houston’s win probability by 20 points. Third quarter, 10:41 left. Damante finds Williams for a 5-yard touchdown. That lifted New Mexico State’s win probability by 19 points. New Mexico State led 14 to 10 at the half. New Mexico State won the second quarter, 14 to 3. New Mexico State out-gained Sam Houston 363 yards to 246. Before kickoff, our model had New Mexico State winning 25 to 23. That pick was right. It projected 48 total points; they scored 54. New Mexico State was favored by 3, and New Mexico State covered by 3. With 54 points, the game went over the total of 46.5. The model’s side against the spread, Sam Houston, did not cover. In our power ratings, New Mexico State climbs from 119th to 112th, and Sam Houston drops from 128th to 130th. Full recap at sportsanalysis.info

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNMSU -2.5

0.5 → NMSU

CloseNMSU -3

0.5 pts toward New Mexico State

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened NMSU -2.5 · closed NMSU -3 · moved 0.5 toward NMSUmodel SHSU -2

model SHSU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (232 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (31 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNMSU -2.5

CloseNMSU -3

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NMSU	SHSU	Over	Under	NMSU	SHSU
BetMGMMGM	-2.5-112	+2.5-105	45.5-105	45.5-112	-140	+115
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	45-110	45-110	-138	+118
BetRiversBetRivers	-3-104	+3-121	44.5-113	44.5-110	-152	+123
BetUSBetUS	-2.5-115	+2.5-105	45-110	45-110	-140	+120
BovadaBovada	-3-105	+3-115	45-115	45-105	-145	+125
DraftKingsDK	-3-120	+3+100	46.5-118	46.5-102	-162	+136
FanDuelFD	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	44.5-120	44.5-102	-134	+112
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-2.5-111	+2.5-101	45-108	45-108	-138	+118
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-2.5-110	+2.5-110	45-110	45-110	-140	+114

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

5 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	NMSU	SHSU	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	-0.5-112	+0.5-105	17.5-220	17.5+165
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-1.5-105	+1.5-115	23+100	23-120
BetUSBetUS	-1.5-105	+1.5-115	23+100	23-120
DraftKingsDK	-1.5-105	+1.5-115	22.5-110	22.5-110
FanDuelFD	-1.5-102	+1.5-120	22.5-118	22.5-104

Last prices before kickoff from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NMSU as a 3-point road favorite at SHSU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NMSU won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 46.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 2.4; 50.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KENN @ FIU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	45–26	W	O48.5
Very close	MOST @ NMSU 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–17	W	U51.5
Very close	LT @ FIU 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2	10–17	L	U49
Very close	LIB @ UTEP 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & situation	-1.5	19–8	W	U46.5
Very close	JXST @ KENN 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	27–26	L	O48.5
Very close	JXST @ UTEP 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-1.5	30–27	W	O46.5
Very close	DEL @ MTSU 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	30–33	L	O49.5
Very close	NIU @ AKR 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4	55–14	W	O42.5
Very close	MOST @ MTSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	22–20	L	U51.5
Very close	CSU @ NEV 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	38–21	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NMSU WLLWL	3-3	50%	1-2	2-0
SHSU WWLLL	3-3	50%	2-1	2-3

Venue/role: NMSU away, as favorite; SHSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NMSU OUOUU	2-4	33%	2-4
SHSU UOOUU	2-4	33%	1-5

Went over in Q3. Of 617 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NMSU	3-7 30%	6-3 67%	3-6 33%
SHSU	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NMSU 3–1 SHSU NMSU leads · 4 games since 2023 · NMSU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 2 2025	Sam Houston 10 @ New Mexico State 37	SHSU -1.5	NMSU W
Sep 21 2024	New Mexico State 11 @ Sam Houston 31	SHSU -14.5	SHSU W
Oct 11 2023	Sam Houston 13 @ New Mexico State 27	NMSU -3.5	NMSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NMSU−18.2 →−13.9▲ 4.3#121

SHSU−20.4 →−14.9▲ 5.5#124

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

NMSU

Longer bar = better

SHSU

#103

Offense

◀ NMSU better

#120

#64

Defense

Even

#67

−0.8 #123

Turnovers

SHSU better ▶

+0.2 #64

64 plays #93

Pace

SHSU faster ▶

65 plays #76

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NMSU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	NMSU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #99	24.5 #77	SHSU
Yards / play	5.83 #71	5.19 #56	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	+0.11 #82	SHSU
Success rate	39% #118	40% #51	SHSU

When SHSU has the ball

Advantage: NMSU defense

	SHSU off	NMSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #124	25.7 #88	NMSU
Yards / play	5.23 #114	5.19 #54	NMSU
PPA / play	−0.03 #127	+0.07 #55	NMSU
Success rate	39% #115	40% #58	NMSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NMSU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NMSU scored	3.2 #118	8.3 #80	11.5 #103	3.8 #120	8.3 #44	12.2 #87
SHSU allowed	4.7 #68	6.8 #63	11.5 #64	6.7 #100	6.3 #73	13.0 #97

SHSU scoring against the NMSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	4.0 #99	9.2 #67	13.2 #92	4.0 #112	2.3 #137	6.3 #136
NMSU allowed	7.2 #116	6.2 #51	13.3 #88	7.3 #111	5.0 #45	12.3 #84

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.