Massachusetts @ UConn: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Fri, Oct 23, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at UConn

Kickoff forecast49°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

4-3 · Power #123

projected

Live

UConn

3-3 · Power #93

projected

MASS 19%

81% CONN

Spread

CONN -12.5

open CONN -15.5

Total

53.5

model 52

Spread edge

Even

matches market

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenCONN -15.5

CurrentCONN -12.5

Total49.5 → 53.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenCONN -15.5

3 → MASS

NowCONN -12.5

3 pts toward Massachusetts

Total

Open49.5

▲ 4

Now53.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened CONN -15.5 · closed CONN -12.5 · moved 3 toward MASSmodel CONN -12.5 matches the line

model CONN -12.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 11.5–13.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 57% (128 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (274 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenCONN -15.5

CurrentCONN -12.5

Total49.5 → 53.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:09

Massachusetts at UConn: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:09 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

This line has shifted toward Massachusetts. Massachusetts visits UConn, Friday at 7 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, UConn sits 93rd, Massachusetts 123rd. That’s about 9 points better than Massachusetts on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Massachusetts has climbed from 136th to 123rd, while UConn has dropped from 83rd to 93rd. Kickoff forecast at Pratt & Whitney Stadium: 49 degrees, dry, wind 5 miles per hour. UConn comes off a bye. On offense, UConn ranks 36th and Massachusetts 70th. On defense, Massachusetts ranks 27th and UConn 85th. UConn plays at the faster pace. Against the spread, Massachusetts is 4 and 3 and UConn is 4 and 2. The model has UConn winning 33 to 19, a 84 percent chance. UConn is favored by 14.5, down from 15.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 49.5 and sits at 50.5. Our model makes it UConn by 12.5, with a total near 52.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

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Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MASS	CONN	Over	Under	MASS	CONN
BetMGMMGM	+13.5-110	-13.5-108	52.5-108	52.5-120	+450	-600
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	51.5-113	51.5-107	+425	-565
BetRiversBetRivers	+14-113	-14-110	51.5-108	51.5-115	+430	-625
BetUSBetUS	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	52.5-115	52.5-105	+435	-565
BovadaBovada	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	51.5-110	51.5-110	+410	-585
DraftKingsDK	+12.5-108	-12.5-112	53.5-115	53.5-105	+390	-520
FanDuelFD	+13.5-110	-13.5-110	52.5-110	52.5-110	+440	-610
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+13.5-106	-13.5-106	53-108	53-108	+425	-565
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	——	——	51.5-110	51.5-110	—	—

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

5 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	MASS	CONN	Over	Under
BetMGMMGM	+7.5-108	-7.5-110	19.5-350	19.5+250
BetRiversBetRivers	+5.5+132	-5.5-180	25.5-130	25.5-103
BetUSBetUS	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	24.5-108	24.5-112
DraftKingsDK	+8.5-110	-8.5-110	24.5-110	24.5-110
FanDuelFD	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	24.5-106	24.5-114

Last prices before kickoff from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money · at kickoff

Winner

MASS

CONN

Bets6% 94%

Money49% 51%

Money is 43 pts ahead of bets on MASS

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Last numbers before kickoff. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CONN as a 12.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.8 against an average line of 11.7; 56 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WKU vs LT 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & season form	-11.5	7–12	L	U52.5
Close	LIB vs LT 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread	-14.5	56–30	W	O59
Close	LIB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 2 · close	-9.5	33–17	W	U54.5
Close	MRSH vs ULM 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest	-10.5	28–23	L	O48
Close	NCSU vs APP 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & spread	-12.5	41–31	L	O56.5
Loose	LIB vs NMSU 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation & season form	-10.5	49–35	W	O58
Loose	M-OH vs CMU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-10.5	46–7	W	O48.5
Loose	JXST vs FIU 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar spread & season form	-12.5	34–31	L	O58.5
Loose	TOL vs CMU 2024 · Week 12 · loose	-15	37–10	W	U52
Loose	ODU vs TROY 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form	-9.5	33–0	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS LWLWL	4-3	57%	2-1	2-1
CONN LWLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-0

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; CONN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UUOUU	2-5	29%	4-3
CONN UOUOU	3-3	50%	3-3

In 1492 games with totals 49.5–57.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CONN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Massachusetts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	vs BALL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 11	@ TOL	L23–38WO
Nov 18	vs AKR	L10–44LO

UConn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ AFA	W26–16WU
Nov 7	vs UNC	W27–14WU
Nov 14	vs JMU	L6–44LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MASS 4–6 CONN CONN leads · 10 games since 1899 · CONN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 30 2024	UConn 47 @ Massachusetts 42	CONN -9.5	MASS W
Nov 25 2023	UConn 31 @ Massachusetts 18	MASS -2.5	CONN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−25.4 →−14.6▲ 10.8#123

CONN−4.3 →−5.8▼ 1.5#93

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MASS

Longer bar = better

CONN

#70

Offense

CONN better ▶

#36

#27

Defense

◀ MASS better

#85

+1.0 #10

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

0.0 #71

58 plays #133

Pace

CONN faster ▶

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Even matchup

	MASS off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #78	25.2 #79	Even
Yards / play	5.86 #69	5.63 #88	Even
PPA / play	+0.16 #62	+0.09 #71	Even
Success rate	43% #70	44% #100	MASS

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #29	19.1 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.82 #16	4.58 #14	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #44	−0.04 #15	MASS
Success rate	44% #56	39% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	8.3 #34	7.9 #89	16.1 #60	5.7 #81	6.1 #91	11.9 #89
CONN allowed	5.0 #74	8.5 #90	13.5 #92	6.3 #93	4.0 #18	10.3 #58

CONN scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	12.8 #2	7.3 #95	20.2 #25	8.0 #27	6.3 #85	14.3 #52
MASS allowed	5.4 #87	2.6 #6	8.0 #21	3.9 #45	6.3 #69	10.1 #53

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.