Massachusetts @ Buffalo: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Buffalo · Conference game

Weather at kickoff44°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Massachusetts

4-2 · Power #123

final

Final

Buffalo

3-3 · Power #125

▲ winner

Closing spread

BUFF -6.5

✓ BUFF W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

MASS 21–26 BUFF

✓ BUFF (65%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUFF -4.5

CloseBUFF -6.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUFF -4.5

2 → BUFF

CloseBUFF -6.5

2 pts toward Buffalo

Total

Open47.5

▼ 4

Close43.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUFF -4.5 · closed BUFF -6.5 · moved 2 toward BUFFmodel BUFF -0.5

model BUFF -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 55% (268 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (341 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUFF -4.5

CloseBUFF -6.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUFF as a 6.5-point home favorite against MASS, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BUFF won 25–18; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.4 against an average line of 3.5; 49.2 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MOST vs LT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–42	L	O45.5
Close	LT vs UL 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	32–31	L	O48.5
Close	JXST vs GASO 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–27	W	O51.5
Close	NAVY vs TLSA 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	34–26	W	O47.5
Close	WSU vs FRES 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	6–26	L	U44.5
Close	USU vs TROY 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-3	21–10	W	U47.5
Close	MASS vs UNM 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-3.5	31–34	L	O48.5
Close	ARMY vs TEM 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	14–13	L	U45.5
Close	HAW vs NEV 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	34–13	W	O42
Close	HAW vs NMSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-4	20–17	L	U55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MASS WLWLW	4-2	67%	2-0	2-0
BUFF LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-2	0-2

Venue/role: MASS away, as underdog; BUFF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MASS UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
BUFF OOOUU	3-3	50%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 39.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MASS	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
BUFF	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MASS 0–2 BUFF BUFF leads · 2 games since 2023 · BUFF has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Buffalo 28 @ Massachusetts 21	BUFF -16.5	MASS W
Sep 14 2024	Massachusetts 3 @ Buffalo 34	BUFF -3.5	BUFF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MASS−25.4 →−14.1▲ 11.3#122

BUFF−12.9 →−16.1▼ 3.2#128

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MASS

Longer bar = better

BUFF

#58

Offense

◀ MASS better

#125

#30

Defense

◀ MASS better

#83

+1.2 #9

Turnovers

◀ MASS better

−0.7 #121

56 plays #137

Pace

BUFF faster ▶

74 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	BUFF def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #67	26.8 #98	MASS
Yards / play	6.11 #58	5.99 #109	MASS
PPA / play	+0.21 #43	+0.11 #86	MASS
Success rate	44% #64	37% #37	BUFF

When BUFF has the ball

Advantage: MASS defense

	BUFF off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	20.8 #115	18.2 #31	MASS
Yards / play	4.33 #137	4.60 #19	MASS
PPA / play	+0.02 #114	−0.05 #17	MASS
Success rate	35% #132	39% #52	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MASS scoring against the BUFF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	8.5 #33	7.8 #90	16.3 #60	6.7 #57	6.7 #78	13.3 #69
BUFF allowed	8.7 #129	6.2 #47	14.8 #105	5.0 #76	7.0 #85	12.0 #76

BUFF scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUFF scored	3.2 #118	8.0 #85	11.2 #109	3.0 #124	6.7 #78	9.7 #114
MASS allowed	5.8 #94	2.2 #6	8.0 #16	3.3 #37	6.8 #83	10.2 #58

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.