Fresno State @ Washington State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 9:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Washington State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

3-1 · Power #80

▲ winner

Final

Washington State

1-3 · Power #100

final

Closing spread

WSU -2.5

✓ FRES W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 21–23 WSU

✗ WSU (57%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSU -1.5

CloseWSU -2.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSU -1.5

1 → WSU

CloseWSU -2.5

1 pt toward Washington State

Total

Open45.5

▼ 1

Close44.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSU -1.5 · closed WSU -2.5 · moved 1 toward WSUmodel WSU -2

model WSU -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 53% (353 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (333 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSU -1.5

CloseWSU -2.5

Total45.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSU as a 2.5-point home favorite against FRES, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: FRES won 26–6 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 4.5 against an average line of 2.3; 49.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	TOL vs OHIO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	VT vs WAKE 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	ODU vs MRSH 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–42	L	O51.5
Very close	PITT vs BC 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.75	24–16	W	U46.75
Very close	MSU vs RUTG 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	14–41	L	O46.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	WYO vs APP 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	22–19	P	U45
Very close	RUTG vs ILL 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.25	31–38	L	O47.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	0-1
WSU WLWW	3-1	75%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: FRES away, as underdog; WSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES UOUO	2-2	50%	3-1
WSU UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 54% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%
WSU	5-5 50%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

FRES 0–1 WSU WSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · WSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2024	Washington State 25 @ Fresno State 17	WSU -3.5	WSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.0 →−4.0–#82

WSU+0.5 →−5.7▼ 6.2#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

FRES

Longer bar = better

WSU

#89

Offense

◀ FRES better

#117

#78

Defense

Even

#90

+1.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−1.0 #125

61 plays #114

Pace

Even

60 plays #124

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Even matchup

	FRES off	WSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #76	24.8 #79	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #70	5.76 #98	FRES
PPA / play	+0.10 #85	+0.11 #86	Even
Success rate	37% #125	43% #95	WSU

When WSU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	WSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #107	19.0 #39	FRES
Yards / play	5.25 #111	6.06 #111	Even
PPA / play	−0.02 #124	+0.02 #47	FRES
Success rate	37% #126	45% #114	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the WSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	0.0 #138	13.0 #25	13.0 #94	7.8 #40	7.5 #65	15.3 #50
WSU allowed	5.0 #82	7.0 #66	12.0 #73	4.3 #66	8.5 #114	12.8 #93

WSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSU scored	5.3 #90	4.3 #126	9.5 #120	5.3 #90	7.5 #65	12.8 #76
FRES allowed	4.3 #68	8.3 #88	12.5 #84	1.3 #12	5.3 #55	6.5 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.