Boise State @ Fresno State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Fresno State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Boise State

4-1 · Power #37

▲ winner

Final

Fresno State

4-1 · Power #80

final

Closing spread

BOIS -8.5

✓ FRES W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

BOIS 27–19 FRES

✓ BOIS (72%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -7.5

CloseBOIS -8.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBOIS -7.5

1 → BOIS

CloseBOIS -8.5

1 pt toward Boise State

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BOIS -7.5 · closed BOIS -8.5 · moved 1 toward BOISmodel BOIS -8

model BOIS -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (344 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBOIS -7.5

CloseBOIS -8.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BOIS as an 8.5-point road favorite at FRES, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: BOIS won 38–31; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 7.7; 47.3 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NEB @ MD 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-7	34–31	L	O47.5
Very close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Very close	NAVY @ TEM 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	32–31	L	O52.5
Very close	BOIS @ WMU 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	32–7	W	U50.5
Very close	NEB @ MINN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	6–24	L	U47.5
Very close	KSU @ BYU 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	9–38	L	U49.5
Very close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Very close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7	31–27	L	O54
Very close	TOL @ M-OH 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–3	W	U44.5
Very close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BOIS WWLWL	3-2	60%	2-0	2-2
FRES LWWWW	4-1	80%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: BOIS away, as favorite; FRES home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BOIS OOOUO	4-1	80%	4-1
FRES UOUOU	2-3	40%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 709 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BOIS	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
FRES	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BOIS 0–2 FRES FRES leads · 2 games since 2023 · FRES has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Fresno State 30 @ Boise State 7	BOIS -17.5	FRES W
Nov 4 2023	Boise State 30 @ Fresno State 37	FRES -2.5	FRES W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BOIS+2.1 →+8.3▲ 6.2#39

FRES−4.0 →−1.6▲ 2.4#75

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

BOIS

Longer bar = better

FRES

#32

Offense

◀ BOIS better

#89

#61

Defense

FRES better ▶

#45

+0.6 #38

Turnovers

FRES better ▶

+1.6 #6

69 plays #38

Pace

◀ BOIS faster

62 plays #109

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BOIS has the ball

Even matchup

	BOIS off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	34.4 #48	16.4 #24	FRES
Yards / play	6.33 #45	5.54 #84	BOIS
PPA / play	+0.31 #16	−0.09 #10	Even
Success rate	49% #20	40% #63	BOIS

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: BOIS defense

	FRES off	BOIS def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #77	20.6 #47	BOIS
Yards / play	5.90 #71	6.80 #133	FRES
PPA / play	+0.10 #86	+0.01 #40	BOIS
Success rate	38% #123	35% #24	BOIS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BOIS scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BOIS scored	7.8 #46	11.8 #27	19.6 #37	7.4 #47	7.4 #63	14.8 #53
FRES allowed	3.4 #40	7.8 #79	11.2 #62	1.0 #3	4.2 #28	5.2 #5

FRES scoring against the BOIS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	0.6 #137	11.0 #39	11.6 #103	7.6 #42	8.6 #40	16.2 #33
BOIS allowed	2.8 #22	8.8 #99	11.6 #65	3.4 #41	5.6 #60	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.