Fresno State @ San Diego State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 10:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at San Diego State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Fresno State

4-2 · Power #80

final

Final

San Diego State

2-4 · Power #108

▲ winner

Closing spread

FRES -6.5

✓ SDSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

FRES 26–19 SDSU

✗ FRES (69%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -8.5

CloseFRES -6.5

Total43.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenFRES -8.5

2 → SDSU

CloseFRES -6.5

2 pts toward San Diego State

Total

Open43.5

▲ 3

Close46.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened FRES -8.5 · closed FRES -6.5 · moved 2 toward SDSUmodel FRES -8

model FRES -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (206 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 54% (123 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenFRES -8.5

CloseFRES -6.5

Total43.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	FRES	SDSU	Over	Under	FRES	SDSU
DraftKingsDK	-6-115	+6-105	46.5-110	46.5-110	-265	+215

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. DraftKings’ row has FRES -6, while the closing line on this card (the close recorded for DraftKings) is FRES -6.5. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like FRES as a 6.5-point road favorite at SDSU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SDSU won 26–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.5 against an average line of 6.3; 54.7 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 8 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FRES @ CSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–49	L	O47.5
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	SHSU @ FIU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5	10–7	L	U47
Very close	SDSU @ NEV 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	44–10	W	O42.5
Close	TEM @ CLT 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	49–14	W	O47.5
Close	FAU @ CLT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-3.5	38–16	W	O45
Close	NCSU @ UVA 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-8	24–21	L	U47.5
Close	UL @ ULM 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	37–23	W	O50
Close	BOIS @ SDSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	34–31	L	O46.5
Close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FRES WWWWW	5-1	83%	2-1	3-0
SDSU LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: FRES away, as favorite; SDSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FRES OUOUO	3-3	50%	4-2
SDSU UUOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 615 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FRES	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%
SDSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

FRES 13–20 SDSU SDSU leads · 33 games since 1969 · SDSU has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 25 2025	San Diego State 23 @ Fresno State 0	SDSU -3.5	SDSU W
Nov 25 2023	Fresno State 18 @ San Diego State 33	FRES -4.5	SDSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FRES−4.0 →−2.0▲ 2.0#77

SDSU−1.2 →−11.4▼ 10.2#110

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

FRES

Longer bar = better

SDSU

#78

Offense

◀ FRES better

#127

#64

Defense

◀ FRES better

#117

+1.3 #7

Turnovers

◀ FRES better

−0.3 #94

60 plays #123

Pace

Even

61 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FRES has the ball

Advantage: FRES offense

	FRES off	SDSU def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #74	35.0 #131	FRES
Yards / play	6.03 #61	5.90 #104	FRES
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	+0.15 #102	FRES
Success rate	40% #103	48% #129	FRES

When SDSU has the ball

Advantage: FRES defense

	SDSU off	FRES def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #103	20.0 #39	FRES
Yards / play	4.58 #134	5.72 #95	FRES
PPA / play	−0.09 #135	+0.03 #43	FRES
Success rate	32% #136	42% #77	FRES

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

FRES scoring against the SDSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FRES scored	2.7 #123	10.3 #47	13.0 #93	6.3 #64	9.0 #27	15.3 #38
SDSU allowed	7.8 #124	8.3 #88	16.2 #114	8.7 #126	10.2 #133	18.8 #133

SDSU scoring against the FRES defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SDSU scored	2.2 #132	4.8 #124	7.0 #132	9.2 #13	6.7 #78	15.8 #35
FRES allowed	5.3 #85	8.2 #83	13.5 #91	1.3 #5	5.2 #49	6.5 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.