Memphis @ Tulane: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Fri, Oct 16, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tulane · Conference game

Weather at kickoff79°F12 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Memphis

5-1 · Power #62

final

Final

Tulane

2-3 · Power #86

▲ winner

Closing spread

MEM -6.5

✓ TULN W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

MEM 28–21 TULN

✗ MEM (68%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -7

CloseMEM -6.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:31

Memphis at Tulane: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 11:24 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMEM -7

0.5 → TULN

CloseMEM -6.5

0.5 pts toward Tulane

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MEM -7 · closed MEM -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward TULNmodel MEM -6

model MEM -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 53% (198 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7The team the line moved toward covered 69% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMEM -7

CloseMEM -6.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MEM as a 6.5-point road favorite at TULN, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TULN won 31–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 55.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 6.7; 51.4 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LIB @ DEL 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	30–14	W	U51.5
Very close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Very close	BAY @ HOU 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	20–10	W	U51
Very close	NAVY @ USF 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-4.5	28–7	W	U58.5
Very close	UL @ ULM 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-8.5	37–23	W	O50
Very close	MEM @ UTSA 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	36–44	L	O61.5
Very close	UNLV @ ORST 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	33–25	W	U61.5
Very close	KU @ CIN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	49–16	W	O59.25
Very close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Very close	ECU @ CCU 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	38–0	W	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MEM WLLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1
TULN LLWLW	2-3	40%	0-2	2-1

Venue/role: MEM away, as favorite; TULN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MEM OOOOU	4-2	67%	5-1
TULN UOOUU	2-3	40%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 50% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MEM	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TULN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MEM 25–17 TULN (1 tied) MEM leads · 43 games since 1954 · TULN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 7 2025	Tulane 38 @ Memphis 32	MEM -3.5	TULN W
Nov 28 2024	Memphis 34 @ Tulane 24	TULN -12.5	MEM W
Oct 13 2023	Tulane 31 @ Memphis 21	TULN -4.5	TULN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MEM+1.4 →+2.2▲ 0.8#59

TULN+2.5 →−5.6▼ 8.1#90

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MEM

Longer bar = better

TULN

#15

Offense

◀ MEM better

#111

#70

Defense

◀ MEM better

#88

+1.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ MEM better

−0.4 #100

68 plays #53

Pace

◀ MEM faster

59 plays #128

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MEM has the ball

Advantage: MEM offense

	MEM off	TULN def	Edge
Points / game	38.5 #23	22.6 #62	MEM
Yards / play	7.64 #5	5.94 #105	MEM
PPA / play	+0.29 #19	+0.17 #109	MEM
Success rate	51% #13	42% #77	MEM

When TULN has the ball

Advantage: MEM defense

	TULN off	MEM def	Edge
Points / game	18.4 #124	20.8 #48	MEM
Yards / play	5.65 #87	5.99 #108	TULN
PPA / play	+0.07 #98	+0.08 #70	MEM
Success rate	34% #134	39% #54	MEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MEM scoring against the TULN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MEM scored	6.3 #68	11.3 #37	17.7 #51	12.2 #7	8.7 #37	20.8 #8
TULN allowed	4.8 #76	6.8 #61	11.6 #67	4.2 #58	6.8 #85	11.0 #69

TULN scoring against the MEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TULN scored	2.8 #122	5.4 #119	8.2 #124	3.4 #120	6.8 #74	10.2 #104
MEM allowed	2.2 #12	9.2 #106	11.3 #63	6.0 #89	3.5 #18	9.5 #51

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.