Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Temple · Conference game
Closing spread
TEM -17.5
✓ CLT W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 69 pts
Model before kickoff
CLT 15–33 TEM
✗ TEM (90%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTEM -23.5
CloseTEM -17.5
Total49.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTEM -23.5
6 → CLT
CloseTEM -17.5
6 pts toward Charlotte
Total
Open49.5
▼ 2
Close47.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEM -23.5 · closed TEM -17.5 · moved 6 toward CLTmodel TEM -19.5
model TEM -19.5
Opened 49.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 2 downmodel 47.5 matches the line
model 47.5 = line ✓
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (148 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (87 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTEM -23.5
CloseTEM -17.5
Total49.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
TEM as a 17.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.
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This game: CLT won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 92%
Favorite covered
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 15.4; 52.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total |
-17.5 | 24–7 | L | U45.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation |
-14 | 29–16 | L | O43.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest |
-17 | 31–10 | W | U42 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form |
-16.5 | 38–13 | W | O46.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation |
-16.5 | 45–24 | W | O40.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & rest |
-11 | 30–27 | L | O47.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest |
-14.5 | 41–24 | W | O54.25 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & season form |
-16.5 | 55–14 | W | O48 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-14 | 34–20 | P | O41 |
| Loose |
2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest |
-16.5 | 26–21 | L | U52.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Temple ATS trend (4-1-1)
Temple have covered 80% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 338-337 (50%)
Market moved toward Charlotte
6 pts (TEM -23.5 → TEM -17.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
49.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 667 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10 0% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | |
| 2-8 20% | 5-4-1 56% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
CLT 0–1 TEM
TEM leads · 1 game since 2023 · TEM has won the last meeting
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18 2025 | Temple 49 @ Charlotte 14 | TEM -9.5 | TEM W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CLT−18.1 →−23.0▼ 4.9#137
TEM−7.3 →−7.7▼ 0.4#98
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6
Longer bar = better
#126
Offense
TEM better ▶#62
#130
Defense
TEM better ▶#111
−1.8 #138
Turnovers
TEM better ▶−0.2 #82
56 plays #136
Pace
Even58 plays #130
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| CLT off | TEM def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 16.0 #131 | 26.3 #96 | TEM |
| Yards / play | 5.14 #114 | 6.11 #116 | Even |
| PPA / play | −0.09 #132 | +0.20 #115 | Even |
| Success rate | 35% #128 | 46% #118 | Even |
| TEM off | CLT def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 24.8 #94 | 42.2 #136 | TEM |
| Yards / play | 6.41 #40 | 6.45 #125 | TEM |
| PPA / play | +0.21 #46 | +0.25 #126 | TEM |
| Success rate | 43% #69 | 49% #131 | TEM |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
CLT scoring against the TEM defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1.7 #132 | 4.7 #126 | 6.3 #135 | 3.5 #114 | 4.0 #124 | 7.5 #131 | |
6.3 #103 | 5.7 #39 | 12.0 #68 | 5.2 #79 | 8.0 #108 | 13.2 #97 |
TEM scoring against the CLT defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
6.8 #60 | 7.3 #98 | 14.2 #83 | 3.3 #120 | 6.3 #86 | 9.7 #114 | |
7.3 #116 | 12.8 #133 | 20.2 #133 | 9.2 #129 | 10.3 #133 | 19.5 #135 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
52° · 13 mph
gusts 22 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
CLT7d
TEM7d
Even
Tempo
Slow 114 plays
slowavg 133fast
Quarterback
CLT backup QB started
Not the usual starter
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

