Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Temple · Conference game
Weather at kickoff52°F13 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›
0-6 · Power #135
38
▲ winner
Final
@
2-4 · Power #104
31
final
Closing spread
TEM -17.5
✓ CLT W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 69 pts
Model before kickoff
CLT 15–33 TEM
✗ TEM (90%) lost
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTEM -23.5
CloseTEM -17.5
Total49.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close
Spread
6 pts toward Charlotte
Total
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TEM -23.5 · closed TEM -17.5 · moved 6 toward CLTmodel TEM -19.5
Opened 49.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 2 downmodel 47.5 matches the line
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (148 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (87 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · DraftKings
SourceDraftKings closing line
OpenTEM -23.5
CloseTEM -17.5
Total49.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEM as a 17.5-point home favorite against CLT, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up to
games
This game: CLT won 38–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 47.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
10 of 10100%
Normal range · usually 92%
Favorite covered
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 15.4; 52.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Close
2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total
-17.524–7 L U45.5
Loose
2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation
-1429–16 L O43.5
Loose
2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest
-1731–10 W U42
Loose
2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form
-16.538–13 W O46.5
Loose
2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar situation
-16.545–24 W O40.5
Loose
2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar total & rest
-1130–27 L O47.5
Loose
2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest
-14.541–24 W O54.25
Loose
2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & season form
-16.555–14 W O48
Loose
2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation
-1434–20 P O41
Loose
2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest
-16.526–21 L U52.5
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Temple ATS trend (4-1-1)
Temple have covered 80% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 338-337 (50%)
Market moved toward Charlotte
6 pts (TEM -23.5 → TEM -17.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
49.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Loading play-by-play…

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CLT−18.1 →−23.0▼ 4.9#137
TEM−7.3 →−7.7▼ 0.4#98
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

CLT
Longer bar = better
TEM
#126
Offense
TEM better ▶
#62
#130
Defense
TEM better ▶
#111
−1.8 #138
Turnovers
TEM better ▶
−0.2 #82
56 plays #136
Pace
Even
58 plays #130
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When CLT has the ball
Even matchup
CLT offTEM defEdge
Points / game 16.0 #131 26.3 #96 TEM
Yards / play 5.14 #114 6.11 #116 Even
PPA / play −0.09 #132 +0.20 #115 Even
Success rate 35% #128 46% #118 Even
When TEM has the ball
Advantage: TEM offense
TEM offCLT defEdge
Points / game 24.8 #94 42.2 #136 TEM
Yards / play 6.41 #40 6.45 #125 TEM
PPA / play +0.21 #46 +0.25 #126 TEM
Success rate 43% #69 49% #131 TEM

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
CLT scoring against the TEM defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
CLT scored
1.7
#132
4.7
#126
6.3
#135
3.5
#114
4.0
#124
7.5
#131
TEM allowed
6.3
#103
5.7
#39
12.0
#68
5.2
#79
8.0
#108
13.2
#97
TEM scoring against the CLT defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TEM scored
6.8
#60
7.3
#98
14.2
#83
3.3
#120
6.3
#86
9.7
#114
CLT allowed
7.3
#116
12.8
#133
20.2
#133
9.2
#129
10.3
#133
19.5
#135

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
TEM +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
52° · 13 mph
gusts 22 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
CLT7d
TEM7d
Even
Tempo
Slow 114 plays
slowavg 133fast
Quarterback
CLT backup QB started
Not the usual starter