Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at East Carolina · Conference game
2-5 · Power #104
23
projected
@
3-4 · Power #93
30
projected
TEM 31%
69% ECU
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 53
Model line
ECU -7
ECU 69% to win
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
East Carolina 69%
Projected TEM 23 – ECU 30 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
ECU -7
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 53
How the model gets there (points from ECU’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadECU rating edge+4.3+Home field+2.5=Model marginECU by 6.8
TotalScoring ratings53.2=Model total53.2

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
TEM−7.3 →−9.3▼ 2.0#104
ECU+2.1 →−5.4▼ 7.5#93
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TEM
Longer bar = better
ECU
#56
Offense
◀ TEM better
#109
#117
Defense
ECU better ▶
#37
0.0 #74
Turnovers
◀ TEM better
−0.6 #111
59 plays #132
Pace
ECU faster ▶
67 plays #59
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When TEM has the ball
Even matchup
TEM offECU defEdge
Points / game 25.7 #90 26.3 #94 Even
Yards / play 6.57 #27 4.87 #29 Even
PPA / play +0.21 #42 −0.02 #20 ECU
Success rate 43% #66 34% #5 ECU
When ECU has the ball
Even matchup
ECU offTEM defEdge
Points / game 25.0 #92 28.0 #108 Even
Yards / play 5.22 #115 6.17 #118 Even
PPA / play +0.03 #112 +0.21 #119 Even
Success rate 39% #117 46% #121 Even

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
TEM scoring against the ECU defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
TEM scored
6.9
#55
7.3
#96
14.1
#82
3.9
#116
6.9
#69
10.7
#99
ECU allowed
2.3
#11
9.7
#111
12.0
#70
5.6
#84
5.9
#61
11.4
#71
ECU scoring against the TEM defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ECU scored
6.4
#62
8.7
#76
15.1
#69
4.6
#106
5.3
#113
9.9
#110
TEM allowed
6.4
#107
4.9
#26
11.3
#56
6.4
#98
9.3
#127
15.7
#125

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
ECU +2.5
home-field points in the model
Weather
No forecast
Venue not known yet
Rest
TEM14d bye
ECU9d
TEM +5 days
Tempo
Slow 126 plays
slowavg 133fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.