Troy @ James Madison: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at James Madison · Conference game

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Troy

3-3 · Power #98

projected

Thu 7:30 PM ET

James Madison

7-1 · Power #51

projected

TROY 11%

89% JMU

Spread

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Total

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model 53

Model line

JMU -17

JMU 89% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

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no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TROY LWLWL	2-4	33%	1-2	—
JMU WWLWL	6-2	75%	4-0	—

Venue/role: TROY away; JMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TROY UUUOU	1-5	17%	3-3
JMU OOUOO	5-3	63%	7-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TROY	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	1-9 10%
JMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Troy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs LT	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ USA	W31–24WO
Nov 21	vs GASO	W28–20WU

James Madison

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ USM	W32–15LU
Nov 14	@ CONN	W44–6WO
Nov 28	vs CCU	W59–10WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TROY 0–2 JMU JMU leads · 2 games since 2023 · JMU has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 5 2025	Troy 14 @ James Madison 31	JMU -24.5	TROY W
Sep 16 2023	James Madison 16 @ Troy 14	TROY -2.5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TROY−8.5 →−7.8▲ 0.7#97

JMU+5.8 →+4.8▼ 1.0#49

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

TROY

Longer bar = better

JMU

#88

Offense

JMU better ▶

#25

#76

Defense

JMU better ▶

#35

0.0 #78

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+0.8 #18

70 plays #33

Pace

Even

69 plays #43

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TROY has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	TROY off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #96	18.3 #30	JMU
Yards / play	5.75 #82	5.00 #39	JMU
PPA / play	+0.10 #91	0.00 #30	JMU
Success rate	42% #83	38% #41	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	TROY def	Edge
Points / game	41.4 #5	25.5 #83	JMU
Yards / play	6.61 #23	5.61 #84	JMU
PPA / play	+0.25 #23	+0.07 #66	JMU
Success rate	45% #49	41% #69	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TROY scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TROY scored	9.2 #23	8.0 #87	17.2 #49	3.7 #122	3.5 #134	7.2 #136
JMU allowed	3.9 #45	4.9 #27	8.8 #31	2.4 #20	6.8 #86	9.1 #39

JMU scoring against the TROY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	11.1 #11	14.0 #8	25.1 #5	7.6 #34	8.6 #37	16.3 #29
TROY allowed	4.7 #68	8.3 #87	13.0 #80	8.5 #127	4.0 #18	12.5 #87

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.