James Madison @ UConn: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sat, Nov 14, 2026, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at UConn

James Madison

7-1 · Power #51

projected

Sat 12:00 PM ET

UConn

3-3 · Power #93

projected

JMU 73%

27% CONN

Spread

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Total

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model 57.5

Model line

JMU -8.5

JMU 73% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WWLWL	6-2	75%	2-2	—
CONN LWLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: JMU away; CONN home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OOUOO	5-3	63%	7-1
CONN UOUOU	3-3	50%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
CONN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

James Madison

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs CCU	W59–10WO

UConn

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 21	vs ODU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ WYO	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JMU 1–0 CONN JMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · JMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	UConn 6 @ James Madison 44	JMU -25.5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.8 →+4.8▼ 1.0#49

CONN−4.3 →−5.3▼ 1.0#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

JMU

Longer bar = better

CONN

#25

Offense

Even

#36

#35

Defense

◀ JMU better

#85

+0.8 #18

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

0.0 #71

69 plays #43

Pace

◀ JMU faster

66 plays #74

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	CONN def	Edge
Points / game	41.4 #5	25.2 #79	JMU
Yards / play	6.61 #23	5.63 #88	JMU
PPA / play	+0.25 #23	+0.09 #71	JMU
Success rate	45% #49	44% #100	JMU

When CONN has the ball

Even matchup

	CONN off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	35.7 #29	18.3 #30	Even
Yards / play	6.82 #16	5.00 #39	CONN
PPA / play	+0.21 #44	0.00 #30	Even
Success rate	44% #56	38% #41	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the CONN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	11.1 #11	14.0 #8	25.1 #5	7.6 #34	8.6 #37	16.3 #29
CONN allowed	5.0 #74	8.5 #90	13.5 #92	6.3 #93	4.0 #18	10.3 #58

CONN scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CONN scored	12.8 #2	7.3 #95	20.2 #25	8.0 #27	6.3 #85	14.3 #52
JMU allowed	3.9 #45	4.9 #27	8.8 #31	2.4 #20	6.8 #86	9.1 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.