James Madison @ Southern Miss: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Thu, Nov 5, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Southern Miss · Conference game

James Madison

7-1 · Power #51

projected

Thu 8:00 PM ET

Southern Miss

1-5 · Power #127

projected

JMU 92%

8% USM

Spread

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Total

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model 58.5

Model line

JMU -19.5

JMU 92% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU WWLWL	6-2	75%	2-2	—
USM LLWLL	2-4	33%	1-2	—

Venue/role: JMU away; USM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU OOUOO	5-3	63%	7-1
USM UOUOU	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
USM	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

James Madison

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ CONN	W44–6WO
Nov 28	vs CCU	W59–10WO

Southern Miss

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ LT	L20–30LU
Nov 21	vs USA	L35–42LO
Nov 28	@ ODU	L13–17L

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JMU 1–0 USM JMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · JMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Southern Miss 15 @ James Madison 32	JMU -27.5	USM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+5.8 →+4.8▼ 1.0#49

USM−8.2 →−16.0▼ 7.8#127

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

JMU

Longer bar = better

USM

#25

Offense

◀ JMU better

#93

#35

Defense

◀ JMU better

#113

+0.8 #18

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

−0.5 #107

69 plays #42

Pace

Even

68 plays #52

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	USM def	Edge
Points / game	41.4 #5	32.7 #126	JMU
Yards / play	6.61 #23	6.00 #109	JMU
PPA / play	+0.25 #23	+0.21 #118	JMU
Success rate	45% #49	44% #97	JMU

When USM has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	USM off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	24.2 #97	18.3 #30	JMU
Yards / play	5.79 #76	5.00 #39	JMU
PPA / play	+0.03 #111	0.00 #30	JMU
Success rate	42% #86	38% #41	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the USM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	11.1 #11	14.0 #8	25.1 #5	7.6 #34	8.6 #37	16.3 #29
USM allowed	10.7 #136	9.0 #102	19.7 #134	6.7 #100	6.3 #72	13.0 #96

USM scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USM scored	1.7 #135	8.8 #75	10.5 #113	9.2 #13	4.5 #121	13.7 #63
JMU allowed	3.9 #45	4.9 #27	8.8 #30	2.4 #20	6.8 #86	9.1 #39

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.