South Alabama @ Louisiana: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Louisiana · Conference game

South Alabama

4-3 · Power #101

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Louisiana

5-2 · Power #81

projected

USA 28%

72% UL

Spread

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Total

—

model 57.5

Model line

UL -8.5

UL 72% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USA LLWWL	4-3	57%	2-2	—
UL PWLWW	5-1-1	83%	2-1-1	—

Venue/role: USA away; UL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OOOOU	5-2	71%	4-3
UL UUUOU	2-5	29%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
UL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

South Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs TROY	L24–31LO
Nov 21	@ USM	W42–35WO
Nov 27	vs APP	W48–14

Louisiana

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 12	@ ULM	W30–27LO
Nov 21	vs CCU	W34–24WO
Nov 28	@ GAST	L17–20LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

USA 1–2 UL UL leads · 3 games since 2023 · UL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Louisiana 31 @ South Alabama 22	USA -3.5	UL W
Nov 16 2024	South Alabama 24 @ Louisiana 22	UL -6.5	USA W
Oct 28 2023	Louisiana 33 @ South Alabama 20	USA -11.5	UL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA−9.6 →−8.6▲ 1.0#101

UL−10.9 →−3.0▲ 7.9#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

USA

Longer bar = better

#58

Offense

◀ USA better

#77

#130

Defense

UL better ▶

#42

+1.0 #11

Turnovers

◀ USA better

+0.6 #31

72 plays #15

Pace

◀ USA faster

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Even matchup

	USA off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	35.1 #36	19.3 #34	Even
Yards / play	5.88 #68	4.98 #38	UL
PPA / play	+0.19 #50	−0.03 #18	UL
Success rate	42% #79	42% #77	Even

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #66	32.4 #125	UL
Yards / play	5.70 #85	6.89 #135	UL
PPA / play	+0.12 #82	+0.24 #123	UL
Success rate	43% #75	51% #136	UL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

USA scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	11.6 #8	9.6 #60	21.1 #19	7.6 #35	6.4 #82	14.0 #56
UL allowed	1.0 #2	8.3 #85	9.3 #37	2.3 #16	7.7 #99	10.0 #51

UL scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	4.9 #93	10.1 #50	15.0 #72	6.4 #60	8.6 #38	15.0 #40
USA allowed	5.0 #75	9.3 #107	14.3 #98	9.0 #131	9.1 #126	18.1 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.