Ball State @ Massachusetts: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Massachusetts · Conference game

Kickoff forecast44°F1 mphgusts 8DryWeather watch ›

Ball State

2-5 · Power #132

projected

Wed 12:00 AM ET

Massachusetts

4-3 · Power #123

projected

BALL 31%

69% MASS

Spread

—

Total

—

model 51.5

Model line

MASS -7

MASS 69% to win

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL LLWWW	4-3	57%	2-3	—
MASS LWLWL	4-3	57%	2-2	—

Venue/role: BALL away; MASS home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL OUOOO	6-1	86%	2-5
MASS UUOUU	2-5	29%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%
MASS	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Ball State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs BUFF	L48–51WO
Nov 17	@ OHIO	W20–14WU
Nov 28	vs CMU	L34–37WO

Massachusetts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ TOL	L23–38WO
Nov 18	vs AKR	L10–44LO
Nov 28	@ BGSU	L14–45LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−17.4 →−18.3▼ 0.9#132

MASS−25.4 →−14.4▲ 11.0#122

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

BALL

Longer bar = better

MASS

#111

Offense

MASS better ▶

#70

#128

Defense

MASS better ▶

#27

−0.3 #94

Turnovers

MASS better ▶

+1.0 #10

63 plays #101

Pace

◀ BALL faster

58 plays #133

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: MASS defense

	BALL off	MASS def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #118	19.1 #33	MASS
Yards / play	5.14 #117	4.58 #14	MASS
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	−0.04 #15	MASS
Success rate	39% #119	39% #47	MASS

When MASS has the ball

Advantage: MASS offense

	MASS off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #78	37.9 #135	MASS
Yards / play	5.86 #69	6.66 #131	MASS
PPA / play	+0.16 #62	+0.29 #134	MASS
Success rate	43% #70	44% #110	MASS

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the MASS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.4 #114	5.9 #113	9.3 #122	4.1 #113	5.7 #101	9.9 #110
MASS allowed	5.4 #87	2.6 #6	8.0 #21	3.9 #45	6.3 #69	10.1 #53

MASS scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MASS scored	8.3 #34	7.9 #89	16.1 #60	5.7 #81	6.1 #91	11.9 #89
BALL allowed	7.7 #124	10.4 #120	18.1 #127	7.0 #105	11.7 #137	18.7 #133

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.