Sacramento State @ Ball State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Ball State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast68°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Sacramento State

1-6 · Power #138

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

Ball State

2-5 · Power #132

projected

SAC 16%

84% BALL

Spread

BALL -14.5

open BALL -9.5

Total

51.5

model 53

Spread edge

SAC by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBALL -9.5

CurrentBALL -14.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenBALL -9.5

5 → BALL

NowBALL -14.5

5 pts toward Ball State

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Now51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened BALL -9.5 · now BALL -14.5 · moved 5 toward BALLmodel BALL -13

model BALL -13

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Already at the modelModel vs the opening line: BALL by 3.5 pts (open -9.5, now -14.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 70% of the 390 games where the line moved (444 at that gap), but those sides covered 52.2% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 60% (156 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (227 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenBALL -9.5

CurrentBALL -14.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:12

Sacramento State at Ball State: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:58 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved 5 points toward Ball State since it opened. Sacramento State heads to Ball State for a Saturday kickoff at 3:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Ball State sits 132nd, Sacramento State 138th. That’s about 7.5 points better than Sacramento State on a neutral field. Since week 2, Sacramento State has dropped from 128th to 138th, while Ball State has held steady around 132nd. Kickoff forecast at Scheumann Stadium: 69 degrees, dry, wind 4 miles per hour. Ball State games have gone over 6 of 7 times. Sacramento State is 0 and 3 against the spread on the road. Ball State has the better offense, 111th to 132nd. Sacramento State has the better defense, 104th to 128th. Our model projects Ball State 34, Sacramento State 20, with a 84 percent win chance. Ball State is favored by 14.5, up from 9.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 49.5 and sits at 51.5. Our model makes it Ball State by 13, with a total near 53.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	SAC	BALL	Over	Under	SAC	BALL
BetMGMMGM	+14.5-110	-14.5-108	51.5-105	51.5-115	+475	-625
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+14-103	-14-117	51-110	51-110	+443	-595
BetRiversBetRivers	+15-113	-15-110	50.5-112	50.5-112	+525	-835
BetUSBetUS	+14.5-110	-14.5-110	51-110	51-110	+450	-595
BovadaBovada	+14-105	-14-115	51-115	51-105	+430	-625
DraftKingsDK	+14.5-112	-14.5-108	51.5-102	51.5-118	+440	-600
FanDuelFD	+14.5-115	-14.5-105	51.5-104	51.5-118	+490	-710
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+14+102	-14-114	51-108	51-108	+443	-595
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+14.5-110	-14.5-110	51-110	51-110	+423	-616

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	SAC	BALL	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+7.5-118	-7.5-102	26.5-109	26.5-111
DraftKingsDK	+9.5-105	-9.5-115	26.5-112	26.5-108
FanDuelFD	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	26.5-106	26.5-114

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

SAC +14.5

BALL -14.5

Bets59% 41%

Money58% 42%

Winner

SAC

BALL

Bets1% 99%

Money53% 47%

Money is 52 pts ahead of bets on SAC

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BALL as a 14.5-point home favorite against SAC, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.2 against an average line of 14.4; 57.8 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AKR vs MASS 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-12.5	44–10	W	O51.5
Close	UNM vs NEV 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	24–22	L	U49.5
Loose	AKR vs KENT 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	35–42	L	O49.5
Loose	ORST vs SHSU 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & total	-21	17–21	L	U52.5
Loose	TROY vs USM 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-17.5	52–20	W	O49
Loose	CSU vs NEV 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-12.5	30–20	L	O45.5
Loose	WMU vs KENT 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-19	52–21	W	O61
Loose	KENN vs UTEP 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar total & situation	-12.5	33–20	W	P53
Loose	SHSU vs NMSU 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-15	31–11	W	U44.5
Loose	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & total	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC LWLLL	2-5	29%	0-3	1-5
BALL LLWWW	4-3	57%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: SAC away, as underdog; BALL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OUUOO	3-4	43%	1-6
BALL OUOOO	6-1	86%	2-5

In 1583 games with totals 47.5–55.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAC	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
BALL	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Sacramento State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 30	vs KENT	No meeting since 2023
Nov 4	vs TOL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 11	@ CMU	No meeting since 2023

Ball State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ MASS	No meeting since 2023
Nov 11	vs BUFF	L48–51WO
Nov 17	@ OHIO	W20–14WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SAC−16.9 →−26.0▼ 9.1#138

BALL−17.4 →−18.7▼ 1.3#132

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

SAC

Longer bar = better

BALL

#132

Offense

BALL better ▶

#111

#104

Defense

◀ SAC better

#128

−1.4 #137

Turnovers

BALL better ▶

−0.3 #94

65 plays #79

Pace

◀ SAC faster

63 plays #101

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SAC has the ball

Even matchup

	SAC off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #135	37.9 #135	Even
Yards / play	4.64 #135	6.66 #131	Even
PPA / play	−0.11 #137	+0.29 #134	Even
Success rate	38% #120	44% #110	Even

When BALL has the ball

Even matchup

	BALL off	SAC def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #118	32.7 #127	Even
Yards / play	5.14 #117	6.11 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.19 #112	BALL
Success rate	39% #119	41% #61	SAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SAC scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SAC scored	2.4 #125	5.1 #120	7.6 #131	1.4 #136	6.0 #94	7.4 #133
BALL allowed	7.7 #124	10.4 #120	18.1 #127	7.0 #105	11.7 #137	18.7 #133

BALL scoring against the SAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	3.4 #114	5.9 #113	9.3 #122	4.1 #113	5.7 #101	9.9 #110
SAC allowed	5.0 #74	15.9 #138	20.9 #135	7.0 #105	4.9 #39	11.9 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.