Toledo @ Sacramento State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Wed, Nov 4, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Sacramento State · Conference game

Kickoff forecast67°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Toledo

5-2 · Power #75

projected

Wed 12:00 AM ET

Sacramento State

1-6 · Power #138

projected

TOL 94%

6% SAC

Spread

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Total

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model 52

Model line

TOL -21.5

TOL 94% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL LWLLW	3-3-1	50%	1-1-1	—
SAC LWLLL	2-5	29%	2-2	—

Venue/role: TOL away; SAC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL OOOUU	5-2	71%	5-2
SAC OUUOO	3-4	43%	1-6

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%
SAC	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	vs MASS	W38–23LO
Nov 20	vs BGSU	L23–28LO
Nov 27	@ OHIO	L7–24LU

Sacramento State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 11	@ CMU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 28	@ HAW	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL+1.0 →−2.4▼ 3.4#75

SAC−16.9 →−26.2▼ 9.3#138

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TOL

Longer bar = better

SAC

#34

Offense

◀ TOL better

#132

#28

Defense

◀ TOL better

#104

0.0 #80

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−1.4 #137

69 plays #47

Pace

◀ TOL faster

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Advantage: TOL offense

	TOL off	SAC def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #27	32.7 #127	TOL
Yards / play	6.69 #20	6.11 #115	TOL
PPA / play	+0.24 #30	+0.19 #112	TOL
Success rate	44% #59	41% #61	Even

When SAC has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	SAC off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #135	23.6 #67	TOL
Yards / play	4.64 #135	4.58 #15	TOL
PPA / play	−0.11 #137	−0.01 #23	TOL
Success rate	38% #120	34% #6	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the SAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	6.3 #70	10.7 #37	17.0 #51	8.9 #16	9.4 #22	18.3 #14
SAC allowed	5.0 #75	15.9 #138	20.9 #135	7.0 #105	4.9 #37	11.9 #76

SAC scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SAC scored	2.4 #125	5.1 #120	7.6 #131	1.4 #136	6.0 #94	7.4 #133
TOL allowed	5.6 #87	5.7 #41	11.3 #56	3.7 #40	7.7 #99	11.4 #71

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.