Sacramento State @ Central Michigan: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Wed, Nov 11, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 11 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Sacramento State

1-6 · Power #138

projected

Wed 12:00 AM ET

Central Michigan

3-4 · Power #120

projected

SAC 9%

91% CMU

Spread

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Total

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model 47

Model line

CMU -18.5

CMU 91% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SAC LWLLL	2-5	29%	0-3	—
CMU WLWLW	3-4	43%	3-1	—

Venue/role: SAC away; CMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SAC OUUOO	3-4	43%	1-6
CMU UOOUU	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SAC	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
CMU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Sacramento State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ HAW	No meeting since 2023

Central Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ BUFF	W38–19WO
Nov 28	@ BALL	W37–34LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SAC−16.9 →−26.2▼ 9.3#138

CMU−10.4 →−13.6▼ 3.2#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

SAC

Longer bar = better

CMU

#132

Offense

CMU better ▶

#117

#104

Defense

Even

#106

−1.4 #137

Turnovers

CMU better ▶

+0.1 #64

65 plays #79

Pace

◀ SAC faster

60 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SAC has the ball

Advantage: CMU defense

	SAC off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #135	25.6 #85	CMU
Yards / play	4.64 #135	5.62 #86	CMU
PPA / play	−0.11 #137	+0.22 #121	Even
Success rate	38% #120	48% #131	Even

When CMU has the ball

Even matchup

	CMU off	SAC def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #132	32.7 #127	Even
Yards / play	4.90 #125	6.11 #115	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #106	+0.19 #112	Even
Success rate	40% #106	41% #61	SAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

SAC scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SAC scored	2.4 #125	5.1 #120	7.6 #131	1.4 #136	6.0 #94	7.4 #133
CMU allowed	5.0 #75	11.7 #126	16.7 #117	5.0 #72	3.9 #17	8.9 #34

CMU scoring against the SAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	0.9 #138	5.0 #122	5.9 #138	4.9 #102	5.9 #96	10.7 #99
SAC allowed	5.0 #75	15.9 #138	20.9 #135	7.0 #105	4.9 #37	11.9 #76

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.