Miami (OH) @ Central Michigan: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Central Michigan · Conference game

Kickoff forecast59°F5 mphgusts 10DryWeather watch ›

Miami (OH)

4-3 · Power #106

projected

Sat 1:00 PM ET

Central Michigan

3-4 · Power #120

projected

M-OH 59%

41% CMU

Spread

M-OH -3.5

open CMU -1.5

Total

40.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

CMU by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenCMU -1.5

CurrentM-OH -3.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenCMU -1.5

5 → M-OH

NowM-OH -3.5

5 pts toward Miami (OH)

Total

Open42.5

▼ 2

Now40.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened CMU -1.5 · now M-OH -3 · moved 4.5 toward M-OHmodel M-OH -2

model M-OH -2

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Already at the modelModel vs the opening line: M-OH by 3.3 pts (open +1.5, now -3.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 70% of the 390 games where the line moved (444 at that gap), but those sides covered 52.2% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (265 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (149 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenCMU -1.5

CurrentM-OH -3.5

Total42.5 → 40.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:09

Miami (OH) at Central Michigan: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:36 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The market has moved toward Miami OH. Here is why that matters. Miami OH heads to Central Michigan for a Saturday kickoff at 1 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Miami OH sits 106th, Central Michigan 120th. That’s about 4 points better than Central Michigan on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Miami OH has slipped from 88th to 106th, while Central Michigan has dropped from 109th to 120th. Kickoff forecast at Kelly/Shorts Stadium: 59 degrees, dry, wind 6 miles per hour, gusting to 13. On offense, Miami OH ranks 70th and Central Michigan 117th. Miami OH has the better defense, 85th to 106th. Central Michigan is 3 and 1 against the spread at home. Our model projects Miami OH 24, Central Michigan 22, with a 58 percent win chance. Miami OH is favored by 3, after opening at a different number. The total opened at 42.5 and sits at 39.5. Our model makes it Miami OH by 2, with a total near 46. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	M-OH	CMU	Over	Under	M-OH	CMU
BetMGMMGM	-3-108	+3-110	40.5-105	40.5-115	-145	+120
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	-3-115	+3-105	40-110	40-110	-150	+130
BetRiversBetRivers	-2.5-115	+2.5-108	39.5-112	39.5-112	-139	+112
BetUSBetUS	-3-115	+3-105	40-110	40-110	-150	+129
BovadaBovada	-3-105	+3-115	40.5-105	40.5-115	-145	+125
DraftKingsDK	-3.5-110	+3.5-110	40.5-105	40.5-115	-166	+140
FanDuelFD	-2.5-124	+2.5+102	40.5-110	40.5-110	-146	+122
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	-3-111	+3-101	40-108	40-108	-150	+130
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	-3-110	+3-110	40-110	40-110	-151	+123

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	M-OH	CMU	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	-0.5-108	+0.5-112	20.5-105	20.5-115
DraftKingsDK	-0.5-108	+0.5-112	20.5-105	20.5-115
FanDuelFD	-1.5+104	+1.5-128	20.5+102	20.5-124

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

M-OH

CMU

Bets83% 17%

Money76% 24%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 3.5-point road favorite at CMU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 3.1; 57.5 points a game (usually 52.3). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	M-OH @ BUFF 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	37–20	W	O38.5
Close	UTEP @ SHSU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	35–17	W	O46.5
Close	AFA @ SDSU 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	31–20	W	O43.5
Close	MRSH @ UL 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	51–54	L	O48
Close	PITT @ WAKE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–21	L	U45
Close	WYO @ CMU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	10–24	L	U39.5
Close	M-OH @ NIU 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	25–14	W	O38.5
Close	USA @ TROY 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–31	L	O46.5
Close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5
Close	FRES @ SJSU 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	41–14	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
M-OH WWLLW	4-3	57%	1-2	3-2
CMU WLWLW	3-4	43%	3-1	2-3

Venue/role: M-OH away, as favorite; CMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
M-OH OUOUO	5-2	71%	4-3
CMU UOOUU	2-5	29%	3-4

In 380 games with totals 36.5–44.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 35% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
M-OH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CMU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami (OH)

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 3	vs BUFF	W37–20WO
Nov 10	vs OHIO	L20–24LU
Nov 17	@ KENT	W34–7LU

Central Michigan

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 4	@ EMU	W24–13WU
Nov 11	vs SAC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 18	@ BUFF	W38–19WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

M-OH 17–13 CMU (1 tied) M-OH leads · 31 games since 1978 · M-OH has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 26 2024	Central Michigan 7 @ Miami (OH) 46	M-OH -9.5	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

M-OH−6.3 →−9.6▼ 3.3#106

CMU−10.4 →−13.5▼ 3.1#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

M-OH

Longer bar = better

CMU

#70

Offense

◀ M-OH better

#117

#85

Defense

◀ M-OH better

#106

+0.4 #41

Turnovers

◀ M-OH better

+0.1 #64

57 plays #138

Pace

Even

60 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: M-OH offense

	M-OH off	CMU def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #84	25.6 #85	Even
Yards / play	6.33 #44	5.62 #85	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.18 #56	+0.22 #121	M-OH
Success rate	41% #94	48% #131	M-OH

When CMU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	CMU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	16.6 #132	25.6 #86	M-OH
Yards / play	4.90 #125	5.83 #98	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.05 #106	+0.11 #82	M-OH
Success rate	40% #106	41% #72	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

M-OH scoring against the CMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	7.0 #50	12.3 #20	19.3 #30	3.7 #121	3.9 #125	7.6 #132
CMU allowed	5.0 #74	11.7 #126	16.7 #117	5.0 #72	3.9 #17	8.9 #34

CMU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CMU scored	0.9 #138	5.0 #122	5.9 #138	4.9 #102	5.9 #96	10.7 #99
M-OH allowed	8.0 #125	3.3 #12	11.3 #56	8.0 #119	6.3 #69	14.3 #114

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.