Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Illinois · Conference game
ORE 77%23% ILL
Spread
ORE -10
open ORE -12.5
Total
49.5
model 55
Spread edge
ORE by 1
no lean
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenORE -12.5
CurrentORE -10
Total51.5 → 49.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenORE -12.5
2.5 → ILL
NowORE -10
2.5 pts toward Illinois
Total
Open51.5
▼ 2
Now49.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot
Opened ORE -12.5 · now ORE -8.5 · moved 4 toward ILLmodel ORE -11
model ORE -11
Opened 51.5 · now 50.5 · moved 1 downmodel 55
model 55
Openline modelNow
Line context
Road favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 75%, covered 56% (85 games)ⓘ
Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (274 games since 2024)ⓘ
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenORE -12.5
CurrentORE -10
Total51.5 → 49.5
Last update7:32 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Game preview · 1:09
Oregon at Illinois: game preview
Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:38 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.
Transcript
The market has moved toward Illinois. Here is why that matters. It’s Oregon at Illinois, Saturday at 3 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Oregon sits 9th, Illinois 53rd. That’s about 13.5 points better than Illinois on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Oregon has fallen from 2nd to 9th, while Illinois has slipped from 34th to 53rd. Kickoff forecast at Gies Memorial Stadium: 71 degrees, dry, wind 7 miles per hour. Illinois comes off a bye. On offense, Illinois ranks 32nd and Oregon 70th. On defense, Oregon ranks 32nd and Illinois 115th. Oregon plays at the faster pace. Illinois games have gone over 5 of 6 times. Illinois is 1 and 3 against the spread at home. Our model projects Oregon 32, Illinois 23, with a 76 percent win chance. Oregon is favored by 9.5, down from 12.5 at the open, toward our model. The total opened at 51.5 and sits at 49.5. Our model makes it Oregon by 11, with a total near 55. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview
Books
9 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ORE |  ILL | Over | Under | ORE | ILL | |
| BetMGMMGM | -9.5-108 | +9.5-110 | 49.5-110 | 49.5-108 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | -9-108 | +9-112 | 50-110 | 50-110 | -355 | +285 |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -8.5-110 | +8.5-113 | 50-109 | 50-113 | -360 | +250 |
| BetUSBetUS | -9-110 | +9-110 | 50-110 | 50-110 | -370 | +295 |
| BovadaBovada | -9.5-110 | +9.5-110 | 50-110 | 50-110 | -400 | +300 |
| DraftKingsDK | -10-108 | +10-112 | 49.5-108 | 49.5-112 | -395 | +310 |
| FanDuelFD | -9.5-110 | +9.5-110 | 49.5-110 | 49.5-110 | -375 | +290 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | -9-104 | +9-108 | 50-108 | 50-108 | -355 | +285 |
| MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag | -9-110 | +9-110 | 50-110 | 50-110 | -370 | +280 |
1st-half prices
4 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | ILL | Over | Under | |
| BetRiversBetRivers | -5.5-115 | +5.5-121 | 25.5-127 | 25.5-110 |
| BetUSBetUS | -5.5-113 | +5.5-107 | 25.5-110 | 25.5-110 |
| DraftKingsDK | -5.5-112 | +5.5-108 | 24.5-102 | 24.5-118 |
| FanDuelFD | -5.5-114 | +5.5-106 | 25.5-110 | 25.5-110 |
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Winner
OREILLBets98%
2%
Money96%
4%
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like ORE as a 10-point road favorite at ILL, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.
Compare by
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Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 74%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 9.9; 45 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & team ratings |
-6.5 | 24–15 | W | U48.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total |
-7 | 28–10 | W | U49 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total |
-13.5 | 16–13 | L | U49.5 |
| Close |
2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation |
-10 | 17–24 | L | U44.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest |
-7 | 43–27 | W | O54.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar total & situation |
-9.5 | 36–23 | W | O47 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation |
-10.5 | 28–16 | W | U52.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread |
-9.5 | 30–13 | W | U54.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread |
-11.5 | 29–22 | L | O47.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & season form |
-13.5 | 29–7 | W | U50.5 |
FSU
FLA
PSU
MSU
WIS
CLEM
NCSU
PUR
TENN
VAN
LOU
VT
PITT
SYR
ALA
SC
TTU
COLOHistory, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Oregon 77%
Projected ORE 33 – ILL 23 · Model Favorite won 73.7% in backtest
Model line
ORE -11
Market ORE -10
Against the spread
No lean
Below the 3-point lean threshold.
Total
Lean Over 49.5
Model 55 · Not proven yet, context only · 510-447 (53.3%)
How the model gets there (points from ILL’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadILL rating edge−15.1+Home field+2.5+Travel+1.4=Model marginORE by 11.2
TotalScoring ratings55.6+Wind 6 mph−0.4=Model total55.2
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Mixed signals on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Illinois home ATS weakness (1-3)
Weak against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 216-236 (48%)
Market moved toward Illinois
2.5 pts (ORE -12.5 → ORE -10). · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Both teams trending Over (9-3 combined)
Their games this season have mostly gone over the total. · Backtest 2023–26: 66-66 (50%)
Total moved down 2
51.5 → 49.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 1443 games with totals 45.5–53.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ORE | 7-3 70% | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% |
| ILL | 6-4 60% | 4-5-1 44% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
ORE 3–1 ILL
ORE leads · 4 games since 1970 · ORE has won the last 3 meetings
All-time series from CollegeFootballData.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 2024 | Illinois 9 @ Oregon 38 | ORE -22.5 | ORE W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
ORE+25.4 →+17.9▼ 7.5#9
ILL+7.7 →+4.2▼ 3.5#53
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7
ORELonger bar = better
ILL#70
Offense
ILL better ▶#32
#32
Defense
◀ ORE better#115
0.0 #75
Turnovers
Even−0.2 #88
70 plays #31
Pace
◀ ORE faster62 plays #113
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When ORE has the ball| ORE off | ILL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 37.0 #23 | 27.8 #106 | ORE |
| Yards / play | 6.01 #57 | 5.82 #97 | ORE |
| PPA / play | +0.08 #96 | +0.30 #136 | ORE |
| Success rate | 40% #102 | 46% #122 | Even |
When ILL has the ball| ILL off | ORE def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 31.8 #51 | 20.7 #42 | Even |
| Yards / play | 6.52 #31 | 4.95 #32 | Even |
| PPA / play | +0.24 #29 | −0.01 #29 | Even |
| Success rate | 49% #16 | 37% #26 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams
ORE scoring against the ILL defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORE scored | 7.3 #45 | 9.2 #67 | 16.5 #58 | 8.5 #20 | 12.0 #3 | 20.5 #6 |
| ILL allowed | 5.7 #89 | 9.7 #110 | 15.3 #107 | 3.8 #41 | 7.7 #98 | 11.5 #73 |
ILL scoring against the ORE defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL scored | 9.2 #23 | 9.7 #56 | 18.8 #37 | 2.7 #129 | 9.2 #25 | 11.8 #90 |
| ORE allowed | 2.2 #10 | 9.2 #105 | 11.3 #60 | 5.0 #72 | 4.3 #25 | 9.3 #42 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
ILL +2.5home-field points in the model
Weather
72° · 6 mph
Wind trims 0.4 pts off the total
Rest
ORE7d
ILL14d bye
ILL +7 days
Tempo
Average 133 plays
slowavg 133fast
Travel
ORE 1,793 mi
Model moves the line 1.4 pts
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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