Northwestern @ Oregon: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 AM EDTWeek 9 · at Oregon · Conference game

Kickoff forecast41°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Northwestern

5-1 · Power #30

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Oregon

4-2 · Power #9

projected

NU 27%

73% ORE

Spread

ORE -7.5

no move since the open

Total

52.5

model 52

Spread edge

ORE by 5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenORE -7.5

CurrentORE -7.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenORE -7.5

no move

NowORE -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▲ 2

Now52.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -7.5 · unchangedmodel ORE -12.5

model ORE -12.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Not moved yetModel vs the opening line: ORE by 5.1 pts (open -7.5, now -7.5). In 2025–2026, with a 5+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 77.9% of the 181 games where the line moved (197 at that gap), but those sides covered 55.4% at the opener, above the 52.4% break-even, but not by a statistically reliable margin: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (236 games)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 9:54 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenORE -7.5

CurrentORE -7.5

Total50.5 → 52.5

Last update9:54 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	NU	ORE	Over	Under	NU	ORE
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	52.5-110	52.5-110	+230	-285

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed, updated 9:54 PM ET. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 7.5-point home favorite against NU, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.3 against an average line of 7; 47.5 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6	42–20	W	O58
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	TEX vs VAN 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	34–31	L	O48.5
Very close	ARIZ vs CIN 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7	34–7	W	U56.5
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Close	TA&M vs AUB 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	16–10	L	U51.5
Close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	TA&M vs FLA 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	34–17	W	O48
Close	OU vs UK 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-7	13–21	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NU WWWLL	4-2	67%	1-1	2-0
ORE LWWLL	2-4	33%	1-3	2-4

Venue/role: NU away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NU OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-1
ORE OOOUU	4-2	67%	4-2

In 1565 games with totals 48.5–56.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NU	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	7-3 70%
ORE	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Northwestern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs IOWA	L14–40LO
Nov 14	@ OSU	L7–31WU
Nov 21	@ MINN	W38–35LO

Oregon

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ OSU	L21–41LO
Nov 14	vs MICH	W38–17WO
Nov 20	@ MSU	W31–10LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NU 1–1 ORE Series tied · 2 games since 1974 · ORE has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 13 2025	Oregon 34 @ Northwestern 14	ORE -24.5	NU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NU+2.4 →+10.0▲ 7.6#30

ORE+25.4 →+17.5▼ 7.9#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

ORE

#21

Offense

◀ NU better

#70

#64

Defense

ORE better ▶

#32

+1.2 #7

Turnovers

◀ NU better

0.0 #75

63 plays #102

Pace

ORE faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NU has the ball

Even matchup

	NU off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	33.5 #41	20.7 #42	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #19	4.95 #32	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #9	−0.01 #29	Even
Success rate	50% #13	37% #26	Even

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	37.0 #23	17.0 #25	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #57	5.29 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #96	+0.08 #67	NU
Success rate	40% #102	44% #101	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

NU scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	6.8 #59	9.2 #67	16.0 #61	8.7 #18	8.8 #34	17.5 #21
ORE allowed	2.2 #10	9.2 #105	11.3 #60	5.0 #72	4.3 #25	9.3 #42

ORE scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	7.3 #45	9.2 #67	16.5 #58	8.5 #20	12.0 #3	20.5 #6
NU allowed	1.5 #5	7.3 #72	8.8 #32	2.7 #24	5.5 #50	8.2 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.