Cincinnati @ Arizona: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 11:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Arizona · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F13 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cincinnati

4-0 · Power #64

final

Final

Arizona

3-1 · Power #31

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARIZ -7

✓ ARIZ W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 24–31 ARIZ

✓ ARIZ (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -8.5

CloseARIZ -7

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARIZ -8.5

1.5 → CIN

CloseARIZ -7

1.5 pts toward Cincinnati

Total

Open54.5

▲ 2

Close56.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARIZ -8.5 · closed ARIZ -7 · moved 1.5 toward CINmodel ARIZ -10

model ARIZ -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (213 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (373 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenARIZ -8.5

CloseARIZ -7

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARIZ as a 7-point home favorite against CIN, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ARIZ won 34–7; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 6.6; 56.9 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs OKST 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6	42–20	W	O58
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Very close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Very close	JMU vs CCU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7	39–7	W	U59
Very close	TROY vs APP 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	49–23	W	O52.5
Very close	KU vs CIN 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	34–37	L	O56
Very close	KSU vs ASU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-7.5	14–24	L	U51.5
Close	JMU vs APP 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-10.75	23–26	L	U56.25
Close	KSU vs TCU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	41–3	W	U60
Close	TTU vs CIN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	44–41	P	O60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLW	3-1	75%	—	1-0
ARIZ LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-3

Venue/role: CIN away, as underdog; ARIZ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0
ARIZ UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
ARIZ	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 0–2 ARIZ ARIZ leads · 2 games since 2025 · ARIZ has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	Arizona 30 @ Cincinnati 24	CIN -6.5	ARIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN+1.4 →+3.4▲ 2.0#55

ARIZ+8.6 →+7.8▼ 0.8#38

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CIN

Longer bar = better

ARIZ

#17

Offense

◀ CIN better

#42

#82

Defense

ARIZ better ▶

#41

+1.0 #23

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−0.8 #116

67 plays #66

Pace

ARIZ faster ▶

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	ARIZ def	Edge
Points / game	40.5 #19	19.0 #40	CIN
Yards / play	7.13 #11	5.02 #50	CIN
PPA / play	+0.36 #9	+0.02 #43	CIN
Success rate	49% #27	36% #30	Even

When ARIZ has the ball

Advantage: ARIZ offense

	ARIZ off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #63	20.5 #50	Even
Yards / play	6.38 #49	5.59 #87	ARIZ
PPA / play	+0.25 #38	+0.13 #89	ARIZ
Success rate	50% #19	43% #100	ARIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

CIN scoring against the ARIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	4.3 #99	9.5 #69	13.8 #88	15.8 #1	11.0 #14	26.8 #2
ARIZ allowed	7.8 #120	2.5 #9	10.3 #53	1.8 #14	7.0 #91	8.8 #41

ARIZ scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARIZ scored	7.8 #51	12.3 #33	20.0 #37	5.3 #91	6.8 #79	12.0 #84
CIN allowed	5.0 #82	8.8 #94	13.8 #95	2.0 #16	4.8 #42	6.8 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.