BYU @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F6 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

BYU

3-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

TCU

2-2 · Power #36

final

Closing spread

BYU -5.5

✓ BYU W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

BYU 27–22 TCU

✓ BYU (64%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBYU -5.5

CloseBYU -5.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBYU -5.5

no move

CloseBYU -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BYU -5.5 · unchangedmodel BYU -3.5

model BYU -3.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 48% (173 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBYU -5.5

CloseBYU -5.5

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BYU as a 5.5-point road favorite at TCU, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 17–10; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 5.2; 53 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5
Close	NEB @ MSU 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar total & spread	-6	31–13	W	U48.5
Close	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-6.5	38–7	W	U49
Close	TCU @ UCF 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	13–21	L	U48.5
Close	TULN @ NAVY 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-7.5	35–0	W	U49
Close	TULN @ ARMY 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar spread	-5	14–35	L	O46.5
Close	LOU @ PITT 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	34–27	W	O53.5
Close	MINN @ CAL 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-3	14–27	L	O40.5
Close	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BYU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	3-0
TCU LWWL	2-2	50%	2-0	—

Venue/role: BYU away, as favorite; TCU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BYU OUO	2-1	67%	3-0
TCU UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BYU	8-2 80%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%
TCU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BYU 1–1 TCU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · BYU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 15 2025	TCU 13 @ BYU 44	BYU -2.5	BYU W
Oct 14 2023	BYU 11 @ TCU 44	TCU -5.5	TCU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BYU+10.7 →+12.9▲ 2.2#20

TCU+8.0 →+6.7▼ 1.3#41

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BYU

Longer bar = better

TCU

Offense

◀ BYU better

#68

#24

Defense

Even

#33

+1.3 #11

Turnovers

◀ BYU better

−0.3 #82

61 plays #116

Pace

TCU faster ▶

69 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BYU has the ball

Advantage: BYU offense

	BYU off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #10	12.5 #13	Even
Yards / play	7.94 #4	4.88 #43	BYU
PPA / play	+0.55 #2	−0.07 #15	Even
Success rate	60% #1	39% #60	BYU

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: BYU defense

	TCU off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #80	15.7 #28	BYU
Yards / play	6.43 #47	4.44 #24	BYU
PPA / play	+0.14 #75	−0.08 #14	BYU
Success rate	43% #71	35% #28	BYU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

BYU scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	14.0 #1	15.0 #14	29.0 #4	9.3 #25	5.7 #99	15.0 #56
TCU allowed	4.3 #66	5.8 #42	10.0 #48	0.8 #5	1.8 #3	2.5 #2

TCU scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.8 #51	7.8 #88	15.5 #76	6.0 #69	7.8 #59	13.8 #70
BYU allowed	5.7 #97	2.3 #11	8.0 #22	2.3 #23	5.3 #57	7.7 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.