Nebraska @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 5:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Nebraska

3-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

2-1 · Power #69

final

Closing spread

NEB -6

✓ NEB W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

NEB 28–22 MSU

✓ NEB (67%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEB -5.5

CloseNEB -6

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -5.5

0.5 → NEB

CloseNEB -6

0.5 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open52.5

▼ 4

Close48.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -5.5 · closed NEB -6 · moved 0.5 toward NEBmodel NEB -6.5

model NEB -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 62%, covered 48% (141 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEB -5.5

CloseNEB -6

Total52.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 6-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 31–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.8 against an average line of 6.1; 50.6 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 4 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	FRES @ WYO 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6	19–24	L	P43
Close	BYU @ COLO 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–21	L	U48.5
Close	ND @ NCSU 2023 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	45–24	W	O49.5
Close	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5
Close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Close	LOU @ PITT 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	21–38	L	O45
Close	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	38–7	W	U49
Close	NEB @ MINN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	6–24	L	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NEB WWL	2-1	67%	—	2-1
MSU PWW	2-0-1	100%	1-0-1	1-0

Venue/role: NEB away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NEB OOU	2-1	67%	3-0
MSU OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 44.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NEB	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
MSU	3-7 30%	7-2-1 78%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NEB 1–1 MSU Series tied · 2 games since 2023 · NEB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Michigan State 27 @ Nebraska 38	NEB -12.5	MSU W
Nov 4 2023	Nebraska 17 @ Michigan State 20	NEB -3	MSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NEB+6.6 →+11.2▲ 4.6#26

MSU+0.6 →+2.7▲ 2.1#56

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NEB

Longer bar = better

MSU

#13

Offense

◀ NEB better

#97

#22

Defense

◀ NEB better

#81

+0.7 #37

Turnovers

◀ NEB better

−0.3 #92

70 plays #33

Pace

◀ NEB faster

66 plays #71

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	46.3 #11	18.0 #46	NEB
Yards / play	7.40 #12	5.54 #92	NEB
PPA / play	+0.50 #5	+0.12 #97	NEB
Success rate	51% #22	42% #89	NEB

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MSU off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #98	11.7 #16	NEB
Yards / play	5.21 #114	4.03 #13	NEB
PPA / play	+0.06 #101	−0.03 #39	NEB
Success rate	43% #76	32% #18	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

NEB scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	11.7 #15	10.3 #58	22.0 #31	7.0 #57	17.3 #3	24.3 #4
MSU allowed	3.3 #46	7.0 #65	10.3 #55	3.3 #41	4.3 #40	7.7 #35

MSU scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.7 #83	8.7 #77	14.3 #92	4.7 #92	6.0 #88	10.7 #100
NEB allowed	3.3 #46	1.0 #4	4.3 #8	2.3 #25	5.0 #51	7.3 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.