Oregon @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sat, Sep 26, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 4 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff83°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Oregon

2-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

USC

4-0 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

ORE -3.5

✓ ORE W

Total

60.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 32–29 USC

✓ ORE (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -5.5

CloseORE -3.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -5.5

2 → USC

CloseORE -3.5

2 pts toward USC

Total

Open58.5

▲ 2

Close60.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -5.5 · closed ORE -3.5 · moved 2 toward USCmodel ORE -2

model ORE -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (245 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (251 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -5.5

CloseORE -3.5

Total58.5 → 60.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 3.5-point road favorite at USC, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 41–27; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 60.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 4.7; 62 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LSU @ MISS 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	49–55	L	O67
Close	PSU @ USC 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	33–30	L	O52
Close	ND @ ARK 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-5.5	56–13	W	O63.5
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	TENN @ FLA 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-5	16–29	L	U56.5
Close	USC @ NEB 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-4.5	21–17	L	U59.5
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	LSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-6	49–39	W	O63.5
Close	TA&M @ TEX 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest	-2.5	17–27	L	U54.5
Close	TENN @ MSST 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–34	L	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2
USC LWLL	1-3	25%	1-2	—

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; USC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE OOO	3-0	100%	2-1
USC OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 336 earlier overs in games with totals 56.5–64.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
USC	8-2 80%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ORE 24–39 USC (2 tied) USC leads · 65 games since 1920 · ORE has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	USC 27 @ Oregon 42	ORE -12.5	ORE W
Nov 11 2023	USC 27 @ Oregon 36	ORE -17	USC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+25.4 →+20.1▼ 5.3#8

USC+17.6 →+15.8▼ 1.8#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

ORE

Longer bar = better

USC

#37

Offense

USC better ▶

#15

#57

Defense

◀ ORE better

#82

+1.3 #15

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

0.0 #69

72 plays #27

Pace

◀ ORE faster

70 plays #44

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	49.7 #5	22.8 #72	ORE
Yards / play	7.03 #23	5.75 #104	ORE
PPA / play	+0.23 #53	+0.08 #78	ORE
Success rate	45% #65	40% #73	Even

When USC has the ball

Advantage: USC offense

	USC off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	43.0 #21	22.0 #69	USC
Yards / play	7.20 #19	5.03 #61	USC
PPA / play	+0.36 #15	−0.03 #36	USC
Success rate	57% #4	39% #60	USC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	11.7 #16	15.0 #16	26.7 #13	10.3 #15	12.7 #6	23.0 #8
USC allowed	2.5 #32	3.5 #25	6.0 #22	6.0 #90	10.8 #128	16.8 #120

USC scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	7.8 #50	18.8 #5	26.5 #14	7.8 #47	8.8 #37	16.5 #38
ORE allowed	3.3 #46	10.3 #115	13.7 #90	4.3 #71	4.0 #29	8.3 #46

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.