UCLA @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F4 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

UCLA

4-0 · Power #16

▲ winner

Final

Oregon

3-1 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

ORE -10

✓ UCLA W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

UCLA 24–35 ORE

✗ ORE (77%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -12.5

CloseORE -10

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -12.5

2.5 → UCLA

CloseORE -10

2.5 pts toward UCLA

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -12.5 · closed ORE -10 · moved 2.5 toward UCLAmodel ORE -13

model ORE -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9–11 since 2023: won 77%, covered 44% (154 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (264 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenORE -12.5

CloseORE -10

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 10-point home favorite against UCLA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: UCLA won 17–15 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.1 against an average line of 9.2; 53.9 points a game (usually 53.3). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs LOU 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	21–24	L	U49.5
Close	PSU vs SMU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	38–10	W	U52.5
Close	OSU vs IU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & spread	-10.5	38–15	W	O52.5
Close	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Loose	UGA vs MIZ 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-14.5	30–21	L	U55.5
Loose	LOU vs UVA 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-6.5	27–30	L	U60
Loose	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & total	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Loose	ND vs IU 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-7	27–17	W	U50.5
Loose	FSU vs PITT 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & total	-10.5	31–34	L	O57
Loose	ALA vs AUB 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar spread & situation	-11	28–14	W	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UCLA WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	—
ORE LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-2

Venue/role: UCLA away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UCLA OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0
ORE OOOO	4-0	100%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 42 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 51% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UCLA	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
ORE	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UCLA 41–33 ORE UCLA leads · 74 games since 1928 · UCLA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2024	Oregon 34 @ UCLA 13	ORE -23.5	UCLA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UCLA+2.1 →+12.2▲ 10.1#22

ORE+25.4 →+21.6▼ 3.8#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

UCLA

Longer bar = better

ORE

#13

Offense

Even

#23

#25

Defense

◀ UCLA better

#64

+2.0 #3

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #10

66 plays #75

Pace

ORE faster ▶

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UCLA has the ball

Advantage: UCLA offense

	UCLA off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	44.8 #7	23.3 #65	UCLA
Yards / play	7.40 #7	5.30 #65	UCLA
PPA / play	+0.29 #23	+0.06 #61	UCLA
Success rate	50% #16	40% #66	UCLA

When ORE has the ball

Even matchup

	ORE off	UCLA def	Edge
Points / game	47.5 #4	18.8 #39	ORE
Yards / play	7.12 #10	4.68 #27	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #21	−0.08 #13	Even
Success rate	45% #58	35% #19	UCLA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

UCLA scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UCLA scored	7.0 #59	10.0 #58	17.0 #61	8.8 #30	19.0 #1	27.8 #1
ORE allowed	2.5 #20	10.3 #121	12.8 #84	5.8 #83	4.8 #40	10.5 #62

ORE scoring against the UCLA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	9.5 #31	13.8 #17	23.3 #13	11.3 #11	13.0 #3	24.3 #2
UCLA allowed	3.5 #49	6.8 #58	10.3 #55	4.3 #62	4.3 #35	8.5 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.