Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Vanderbilt · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F9 mphgusts 27Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ole Miss

3-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Final

Vanderbilt

3-2 · Power #60

final

Closing spread

MISS -9.5

✓ MISS W

Total

54.5

▲ Over · 69 pts

Model before kickoff

MISS 33–25 VAN

✓ MISS (73%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -10.5

CloseMISS -9.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -10.5

1 → VAN

CloseMISS -9.5

1 pt toward Vanderbilt

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -10.5 · closed MISS -9.5 · moved 1 toward VANmodel MISS -5.5

model MISS -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 50% (98 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (378 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -10.5

CloseMISS -9.5

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 9.5-point road favorite at VAN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 52–17; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 69 points went over 54.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11 against an average line of 7.5; 60.2 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	USC @ MD 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	28–29	L	O56
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	LOU @ NCSU 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	28–31	L	O56.5
Close	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Close	MISS @ AUB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	28–21	W	U55.5
Close	ARK @ MSST 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-7.5	58–25	W	O55
Close	TA&M @ ARK 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	45–42	L	O57.5
Close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Close	UNC @ PITT 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	41–24	W	O49.5
Close	UGA @ MSST 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation	-9.5	41–21	W	O56.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MISS LLWL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-2
VAN LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-2	2-0

Venue/role: MISS away, as favorite; VAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MISS OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1
VAN UOOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

Went over in Q4. Of 718 earlier overs in games with totals 50.5–58.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MISS	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
VAN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MISS 57–37 VAN (2 tied) MISS leads · 96 games since 1902 · MISS has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 28 2023	Vanderbilt 7 @ Ole Miss 33	MISS -24	MISS W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MISS+18.8 →+13.2▼ 5.6#19

VAN+13.0 →+5.8▼ 7.2#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MISS

Longer bar = better

VAN

#33

Offense

◀ MISS better

#97

#119

Defense

VAN better ▶

#69

−1.0 #125

Turnovers

VAN better ▶

0.0 #65

68 plays #57

Pace

◀ MISS faster

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MISS has the ball

Advantage: MISS offense

	MISS off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #42	25.0 #78	MISS
Yards / play	6.52 #42	5.40 #72	MISS
PPA / play	+0.26 #33	+0.06 #62	MISS
Success rate	51% #14	40% #64	MISS

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: VAN offense

	VAN off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #91	30.8 #117	VAN
Yards / play	5.53 #98	5.89 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.25 #125	VAN
Success rate	40% #104	49% #128	VAN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MISS scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	4.3 #99	12.5 #25	16.8 #63	7.3 #50	11.5 #8	18.8 #17
VAN allowed	6.8 #106	8.8 #96	15.6 #109	4.2 #56	5.2 #48	9.4 #52

VAN scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.8 #76	4.8 #121	10.6 #109	8.0 #38	6.8 #76	14.8 #55
MISS allowed	3.3 #38	4.3 #25	7.5 #18	13.0 #137	10.3 #130	23.3 #138

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.