Stanford @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff77°F8 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Stanford

2-3 · Power #97

final

Final

Notre Dame

5-0 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -40.5

✓ ND W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 6–47 ND

✓ ND (100%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -35.5

CloseND -40.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -35.5

5 → ND

CloseND -40.5

5 pts toward Notre Dame

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -35.5 · closed ND -40.5 · moved 5 toward NDmodel ND -41.5

model ND -41.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 38.5–42.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 56% (83 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (215 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -35.5

CloseND -40.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like ND as a 40.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 58–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 8 similar games. 65 points went over 55.5, as in 3 of 8.

Favorite won

8 of 8100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 43.1 against an average line of 40.3; 54.6 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	UGA vs BALL 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & total	-42	45–3	P	U52.5
Loose	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-41	49–21	L	O56
Loose	ND vs SYR 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & total	-36.5	70–7	W	O51
Loose	MIZ vs MASS 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-44.5	42–6	L	U57
Loose	OSU vs PUR 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-37.5	45–0	W	U55.5
Loose	TENN vs NMSU 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-41.5	42–9	L	U60
Loose	TTU vs OKST 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-37.5	42–0	W	U56.5
Loose	TENN vs UTEP 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & situation	-41.5	56–0	W	O54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN WLLWL	2-3	40%	0-2	1-3
ND WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN OOUOO	4-1	80%	2-3
ND OUUOO	3-2	60%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 675 earlier overs in games with totals 51.5–59.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
ND	10-0 100%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

STAN 14–26 ND ND leads · 40 games since 1924 · ND has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Notre Dame 49 @ Stanford 20	ND -32.5	STAN W
Oct 12 2024	Stanford 7 @ Notre Dame 49	ND -22.5	ND W
Nov 25 2023	Notre Dame 56 @ Stanford 23	ND -26	ND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−2.6 →−7.5▼ 4.9#99

ND+24.9 →+26.2▲ 1.3#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

STAN

Longer bar = better

#106

Offense

ND better ▶

#17

#132

Defense

ND better ▶

+0.8 #31

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+2.0 #2

67 plays #63

Pace

◀ STAN faster

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	STAN off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	17.4 #131	11.8 #7	ND
Yards / play	5.07 #122	3.99 #4	ND
PPA / play	+0.18 #59	−0.11 #8	ND
Success rate	40% #110	33% #9	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	41.2 #15	38.2 #134	ND
Yards / play	6.59 #39	6.53 #125	ND
PPA / play	+0.35 #10	+0.33 #137	ND
Success rate	55% #3	49% #133	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	3.4 #108	4.6 #124	8.0 #129	5.2 #87	4.2 #118	9.4 #113
ND allowed	2.0 #15	4.8 #32	6.8 #12	2.4 #25	2.6 #6	5.0 #5

ND scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	12.4 #7	13.2 #21	25.6 #9	6.6 #68	9.0 #30	15.6 #45
STAN allowed	7.8 #123	11.8 #128	19.6 #132	8.4 #125	10.2 #129	18.6 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.