Virginia Tech @ California: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at California · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F11 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Virginia Tech

4-1 · Power #45

final

Final

California

2-3 · Power #85

▲ winner

Closing spread

VT -11.5

✓ CAL W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

VT 32–21 CAL

✗ VT (77%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVT -10.5

CloseVT -11.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenVT -10.5

1 → VT

CloseVT -11.5

1 pt toward Virginia Tech

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened VT -10.5 · closed VT -11.5 · moved 1 toward VTmodel VT -6.5

model VT -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–12.5 since 2023: won 82%, covered 50% (71 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (339 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenVT -10.5

CloseVT -11.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like VT as an 11.5-point road favorite at CAL, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CAL won 25–20 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 78%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 17.7 against an average line of 11.5; 52.5 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Very close	UVA @ UNC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-11.5	17–16	L	U50.5
Very close	WASH @ UCLA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	48–14	W	O51.5
Very close	MIZ @ VAN 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	38–21	W	O54.5
Very close	SMU @ UVA 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10.5	33–7	W	U54.5
Very close	SMU @ ECU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-11.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	SMU @ CAL 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	35–38	L	O53.5
Very close	NEB @ PUR 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10	28–10	W	U47
Very close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Very close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-13.5	45–28	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VT WWWLL	3-2	60%	1-1	3-2
CAL LWLLL	1-4	20%	0-3	1-3

Venue/role: VT away, as favorite; CAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VT OOOUO	4-1	80%	4-1
CAL OUUUO	2-3	40%	2-3

Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VT	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CAL	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VT 1–2 CAL CAL leads · 3 games since 2003 · CAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 24 2025	California 34 @ Virginia Tech 42	VT -6.5	VT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VT+1.5 →+7.7▲ 6.2#42

CAL−0.3 →−2.3▼ 2.0#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

CAL

#40

Offense

◀ VT better

#108

#39

Defense

◀ VT better

#67

−1.0 #128

Turnovers

CAL better ▶

+0.2 #61

77 plays #6

Pace

Even

72 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VT has the ball

Advantage: VT offense

	VT off	CAL def	Edge
Points / game	41.2 #16	26.6 #98	VT
Yards / play	6.13 #62	5.47 #75	Even
PPA / play	+0.24 #42	+0.07 #67	VT
Success rate	47% #39	36% #27	Even

When CAL has the ball

Advantage: VT defense

	CAL off	VT def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #83	19.8 #47	VT
Yards / play	5.53 #97	4.65 #26	VT
PPA / play	−0.02 #125	+0.05 #55	VT
Success rate	38% #126	36% #29	VT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

VT scoring against the CAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VT scored	11.8 #9	14.8 #11	26.6 #7	7.0 #52	7.6 #62	14.6 #57
CAL allowed	3.4 #41	12.0 #129	15.4 #108	2.6 #28	8.6 #116	11.2 #76

CAL scoring against the VT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAL scored	10.0 #21	5.4 #115	15.4 #70	7.0 #52	4.6 #114	11.6 #90
VT allowed	2.0 #15	6.2 #51	8.2 #26	4.2 #56	7.4 #104	11.6 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.