Notre Dame @ BYU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at BYU

Weather at kickoff67°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Notre Dame

6-0 · Power #1

final

Final

BYU

5-0 · Power #14

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -10.5

✓ BYU W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

ND 30–20 BYU

✗ ND (77%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -11.5

CloseND -10.5

Total54.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -11.5

1 → BYU

CloseND -10.5

1 pt toward BYU

Total

Open54.5

▼ 7

Close47.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened ND -11.5 · closed ND -10.5 · moved 1 toward BYUmodel ND -9

model ND -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 54% (101 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (391 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenND -11.5

CloseND -10.5

Total54.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	ND	BYU	Over	Under	ND	BYU
DraftKingsDK	-10.5-110	+10.5-110	47.5-108	47.5-112	-410	+320

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 8 games most like ND as a 10.5-point road favorite at BYU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: BYU won 28–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 8 similar games. 52 points went over 47.5, as in 2 of 8.

Favorite won

7 of 888%

Normal range · usually 76%

Favorite covered

6 of 875%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 825%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 8 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.3 against an average line of 7.9; 42 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 8 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	IU @ NEB 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	20–17	L	U48.5
Loose	USC @ MINN 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & total	-8.5	17–24	L	U45.5
Loose	UTAH @ ISU 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	31–17	W	O46.5
Loose	ALA @ UK 2026 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-9.5	45–17	W	O47.5
Loose	OSU @ MICH 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9.5	27–9	W	U43
Loose	ORE @ WASH 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	26–14	W	U51.5
Loose	BYU @ TCU 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	17–10	W	U48.5
Loose	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	38–7	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ND WLWLW	4-2	67%	1-1	4-2
BYU WWWWW	5-0	100%	3-0	—

Venue/role: ND away, as favorite; BYU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ND UUOOO	4-2	67%	6-0
BYU OUOUU	2-3	40%	5-0

Went over in Q4. Of 674 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ND	10-0 100%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
BYU	9-1 90%	8-1 89%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ND 7–3 BYU ND leads · 10 games since 1992 · BYU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ND+24.9 →+27.7▲ 2.8#1

BYU+10.7 →+14.1▲ 3.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

BYU

Offense

◀ ND better

#20

Defense

Even

#10

+2.2 #3

Turnovers

◀ ND better

+0.8 #27

67 plays #67

Pace

◀ ND faster

61 plays #115

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	BYU def	Edge
Points / game	44.0 #4	13.4 #9	Even
Yards / play	6.87 #17	4.33 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.39 #3	−0.09 #8	Even
Success rate	54% #2	34% #13	Even

When BYU has the ball

Even matchup

	BYU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #47	11.0 #4	ND
Yards / play	7.10 #10	4.08 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.33 #11	−0.15 #4	Even
Success rate	51% #13	31% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ND scoring against the BYU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	12.7 #5	14.8 #7	27.5 #2	6.7 #55	9.8 #15	16.5 #28
BYU allowed	3.4 #37	3.4 #16	6.8 #12	1.4 #6	5.2 #51	6.6 #12

BYU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BYU scored	9.8 #20	11.8 #30	21.6 #18	7.6 #39	5.4 #111	13.0 #76
ND allowed	1.7 #6	4.0 #20	5.7 #4	3.2 #32	2.2 #3	5.3 #5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.