Arizona State @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff60°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Arizona State

3-2 · Power #66

final

Final

Texas Tech

5-0 · Power #15

▲ winner

Closing spread

TTU -16.5

✓ TTU W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

ASU 17–34 TTU

✓ TTU (89%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTTU -12.5

CloseTTU -16.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -12.5

4 → TTU

CloseTTU -16.5

4 pts toward Texas Tech

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -12.5 · closed TTU -16.5 · moved 4 toward TTUmodel TTU -18.5

model TTU -18.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 15.5–17.5 since 2023: won 91%, covered 51% (150 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (221 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTTU -12.5

CloseTTU -16.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 16.5-point home favorite against ASU, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 53–25; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 50.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 27 against an average line of 16.9; 58 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & spread	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Very close	SMU vs BC 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-19	38–28	L	O54
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	ND vs PITT 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-21	58–7	W	O45.5
Close	FSU vs WAKE 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-12.5	42–7	W	U50.5
Close	ILL vs MD 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	24–6	W	U51.5
Close	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Close	CLEM vs NCSU 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-17.5	59–35	W	O44
Close	NEB vs MD 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-15.5	48–23	W	O52.5
Close	TENN vs UK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-17.5	28–18	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ASU WLWLL	2-3	40%	0-1	0-1
TTU LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3

Venue/role: ASU away, as underdog; TTU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU OOUOU	3-2	60%	3-2
TTU UOOOU	3-2	60%	5-0

Went over in Q2. Of 794 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
TTU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

ASU 3–4 TTU TTU leads · 7 games since 1999 · TTU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Texas Tech 22 @ Arizona State 26	TTU -8.5	ASU W
Sep 21 2024	Arizona State 22 @ Texas Tech 30	TTU -4.5	TTU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ASU+6.4 →+2.1▼ 4.3#60

TTU+19.6 →+14.7▼ 4.9#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ASU

Longer bar = better

TTU

#63

Offense

Even

#53

#76

Defense

TTU better ▶

#32

−0.6 #110

Turnovers

TTU better ▶

+0.4 #42

67 plays #60

Pace

Even

67 plays #55

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ASU has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	ASU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	32.6 #54	16.2 #22	TTU
Yards / play	6.29 #50	5.02 #49	Even
PPA / play	+0.09 #90	−0.04 #22	TTU
Success rate	45% #56	37% #34	TTU

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	ASU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #43	27.8 #106	TTU
Yards / play	6.03 #62	5.19 #58	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #62	+0.10 #80	Even
Success rate	47% #45	40% #58	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ASU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ASU scored	9.6 #22	10.2 #51	19.8 #30	9.6 #15	3.2 #133	12.8 #78
TTU allowed	3.4 #37	6.2 #51	9.6 #43	3.4 #37	3.2 #15	6.6 #13

TTU scoring against the ASU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	4.8 #92	9.0 #69	13.8 #87	9.2 #16	11.8 #5	21.0 #6
ASU allowed	6.2 #99	6.0 #45	12.2 #72	5.6 #85	10.0 #131	15.6 #124

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.