Missouri @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F14 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Missouri

5-1 · Power #19

final

Final

Ole Miss

4-1 · Power #12

▲ winner

Closing spread

MISS -4

✓ MISS W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

MIZ 24–28 MISS

✓ MISS (60%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -6

CloseMISS -4

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMISS -6

2 → MIZ

CloseMISS -4

2 pts toward Missouri

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MISS -6 · closed MISS -4 · moved 2 toward MIZmodel MISS -1.5

model MISS -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3–5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 50% (246 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (270 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMISS -6

CloseMISS -4

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MISS as a 4-point home favorite against MIZ, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: MISS won 31–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 57.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 850%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 2.9; 61.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UNC vs MIA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–31	W	O57
Very close	TENN vs OU 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	27–33	L	O55.5
Very close	GT vs PITT 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	28–42	L	O61.5
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	TCU vs CIN 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	45–23	W	O58.5
Very close	DUKE vs UVA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	17–34	L	U60
Very close	TTU vs KSU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-1	21–38	L	O57.5
Very close	ASU vs TCU 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	27–24	P	U54.5
Very close	ISU vs KSU 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2	29–21	W	U51.5
Very close	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
MISS LLWLW	2-3	40%	1-1	1-2

Venue/role: MIZ away, as underdog; MISS home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ OUUOU	3-3	50%	5-1
MISS OUUOO	3-2	60%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 34 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 50% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
MISS	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIZ 7–2 MISS MIZ leads · 9 games since 1973 · MISS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+13.4 →+15.9▲ 2.5#11

MISS+18.8 →+14.9▼ 3.9#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MIZ

Longer bar = better

MISS

#49

Offense

MISS better ▶

#22

#16

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#109

+0.8 #19

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

−0.2 #86

68 plays #51

Pace

Even

67 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	35.8 #32	28.0 #109	MIZ
Yards / play	6.44 #39	5.62 #88	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.20 #48	+0.20 #114	MIZ
Success rate	43% #76	47% #126	MIZ

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #23	17.7 #29	Even
Yards / play	6.47 #37	4.51 #14	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.30 #19	−0.06 #14	Even
Success rate	52% #7	33% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	2.8 #121	16.8 #3	19.7 #33	8.0 #34	8.2 #47	16.2 #31
MISS allowed	3.2 #32	3.4 #14	6.6 #9	11.8 #137	9.6 #128	21.4 #137

MISS scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	6.2 #69	15.6 #4	21.8 #17	5.8 #79	11.2 #7	17.0 #27
MIZ allowed	5.0 #77	4.7 #27	9.7 #45	2.8 #28	5.2 #47	8.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.