Missouri @ Arkansas: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sat, Oct 31, 2026, 7:45 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Kickoff forecast62°F12 mphgusts 33DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Missouri

5-2 · Power #19

projected

Sat 7:45 PM ET

Arkansas

3-4 · Power #57

projected

MIZ 75%

25% ARK

Spread

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Total

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model 47

Model line

MIZ -9.5

MIZ 75% to win

Pick this game

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

Prices

FanDuel · current prices

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MIZ	ARK	Over	Under	MIZ	ARK
FanDuelFD	-9.5-122	+9.5+100	48.5-110	48.5-110	-385	+300

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. One book so far. Prices vary by state; check your book.

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIZ LLWWL	3-4	43%	1-2	—
ARK LWLWW	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: MIZ away; ARK home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIZ UUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2
ARK OUUUO	2-5	29%	3-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIZ	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%
ARK	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Missouri

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs TEX	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	@ UGA	L21–30WU
Nov 21	vs UK	W38–21WO

Arkansas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ AUB	L24–33LO
Nov 14	vs SC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	@ TEX	L37–52LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

MIZ 3–0 ARK MIZ leads · 3 games since 2023 · MIZ has won the last 3 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 29 2025	Missouri 31 @ Arkansas 17	MIZ -4.5	MIZ W
Nov 30 2024	Arkansas 21 @ Missouri 28	MIZ -3.5	MIZ W
Nov 24 2023	Missouri 48 @ Arkansas 14	MIZ -10	MIZ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIZ+13.4 →+13.8▲ 0.4#19

ARK+7.3 →+2.6▼ 4.7#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MIZ

Longer bar = better

ARK

#65

Offense

◀ MIZ better

#102

#29

Defense

◀ MIZ better

#103

+0.7 #19

Turnovers

◀ MIZ better

+0.1 #65

68 plays #48

Pace

Even

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: MIZ offense

	MIZ off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #59	26.7 #96	MIZ
Yards / play	6.29 #49	6.02 #110	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	+0.20 #113	MIZ
Success rate	41% #91	43% #94	Even

When ARK has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	ARK off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #115	19.6 #36	MIZ
Yards / play	4.99 #121	4.86 #27	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.05 #103	+0.01 #36	MIZ
Success rate	43% #67	35% #17	MIZ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MIZ scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	2.9 #119	14.4 #7	17.3 #47	6.9 #48	7.0 #65	13.9 #60
ARK allowed	5.0 #75	8.6 #94	13.6 #93	6.7 #102	6.4 #77	13.1 #97

ARK scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	3.9 #104	4.3 #131	8.1 #127	6.0 #70	6.9 #69	12.9 #77
MIZ allowed	5.3 #83	6.0 #47	11.3 #56	2.4 #21	5.9 #61	8.3 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.