Texas @ Missouri: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Missouri · Conference game

Kickoff forecast65°F10 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Texas

4-2 · Power #8

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Missouri

5-2 · Power #19

projected

TEX 65%

35% MIZ

Spread

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Total

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model 43.5

Model line

TEX -5.5

TEX 65% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LLLLL	1-5	17%	0-1	—
MIZ LLWWL	3-4	43%	2-2	—

Venue/role: TEX away; MIZ home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UUUOU	2-4	33%	4-2
MIZ UUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
MIZ	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ LSU	No meeting since 2023
Nov 21	vs ARK	W52–37WO
Nov 27	@ TA&M	W27–17WU

Missouri

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	@ UGA	L21–30WU
Nov 21	vs UK	W38–21WO
Nov 28	vs OU	L6–17LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+18.4 →+20.5▲ 2.1#8

MIZ+13.4 →+13.8▲ 0.4#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TEX

Longer bar = better

MIZ

#90

Offense

MIZ better ▶

#65

#16

Defense

Even

#29

−0.5 #105

Turnovers

MIZ better ▶

+0.7 #19

67 plays #67

Pace

MIZ faster ▶

68 plays #49

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: MIZ defense

	TEX off	MIZ def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #64	19.6 #37	MIZ
Yards / play	5.43 #105	4.86 #27	MIZ
PPA / play	+0.03 #113	+0.01 #36	MIZ
Success rate	43% #76	35% #17	MIZ

When MIZ has the ball

Advantage: TEX defense

	MIZ off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	31.1 #60	17.8 #28	TEX
Yards / play	6.29 #48	4.15 #2	TEX
PPA / play	+0.17 #60	−0.01 #25	TEX
Success rate	41% #91	34% #10	TEX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the MIZ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	8.0 #35	7.8 #90	15.8 #65	4.5 #107	9.8 #17	14.3 #52
MIZ allowed	5.3 #83	6.0 #47	11.3 #56	2.4 #21	5.9 #61	8.3 #28

MIZ scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIZ scored	2.9 #119	14.4 #7	17.3 #47	6.9 #49	7.0 #65	13.9 #61
TEX allowed	2.7 #16	5.7 #37	8.3 #27	3.8 #41	5.7 #57	9.5 #45

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.