Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sat, Nov 7, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 10 · at Mississippi State · Conference game

Vanderbilt

3-4 · Power #60

projected

Sat 12:00 AM ET

Mississippi State

4-2 · Power #29

projected

VAN 21%

79% MSST

Spread

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Total

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model 58.5

Model line

MSST -11.5

MSST 79% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

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no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WWWLL	3-4	43%	2-0	—
MSST WWWLL	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: VAN away; MSST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OUOOO	5-2	71%	3-4
MSST UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
MSST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Vanderbilt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs ALA	L14–30LU
Nov 21	@ FLA	L14–38L
Nov 28	vs TENN	W45–24WO

Mississippi State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 14	vs AUB	L13–27LP
Nov 21	vs TNTC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 27	@ MISS	L19–38LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+13.0 →+2.0▼ 11.0#60

MSST+5.6 →+10.5▲ 4.9#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

VAN

Longer bar = better

MSST

#99

Offense

MSST better ▶

#41

#100

Defense

Even

#101

−0.7 #121

Turnovers

MSST better ▶

−0.5 #106

64 plays #91

Pace

MSST faster ▶

71 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #101	28.5 #111	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #97	5.49 #75	MSST
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	+0.14 #95	Even
Success rate	40% #101	46% #123	VAN

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: MSST offense

	MSST off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	32.5 #48	29.7 #115	MSST
Yards / play	6.43 #38	5.64 #89	MSST
PPA / play	+0.20 #46	+0.14 #98	MSST
Success rate	48% #33	44% #99	MSST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.6 #86	4.4 #130	10.0 #116	7.7 #32	5.9 #96	13.6 #64
MSST allowed	7.3 #118	7.8 #78	15.2 #105	9.2 #132	4.2 #23	13.3 #100

MSST scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	9.3 #19	9.7 #56	19.0 #33	6.0 #70	7.5 #55	13.5 #65
VAN allowed	6.9 #112	12.3 #132	19.1 #129	5.0 #72	5.6 #53	10.6 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.