Vanderbilt @ Kentucky: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Kentucky · Conference game

Kickoff forecast61°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

3-4 · Power #60

projected

Sat 7:30 PM ET

Kentucky

6-1 · Power #26

projected

VAN 21%

79% UK

Spread

UK -10.5

open UK -9.5

Total

52.5

model 52

Spread edge

UK by 3

no lean

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUK -9.5

CurrentUK -10.5

Total52.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenUK -9.5

1 → UK

NowUK -10.5

1 pt toward Kentucky

Total

Open52.5

no move

Now52.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened UK -9.5 · now UK -10.5 · moved 1 toward UKmodel UK -13.5

model UK -13.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: UK by 3.8 pts (open -9.5, now -10.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 70% of the 390 games where the line moved (444 at that gap), but those sides covered 52.2% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 45% (177 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (352 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenUK -9.5

CurrentUK -10.5

Total52.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:02

Vanderbilt at Kentucky: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 10:27 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

The line has moved toward Kentucky since it opened. Vanderbilt visits Kentucky, Saturday at 7:30 PM Eastern. In our power ratings, Kentucky sits 26th, Vanderbilt 60th. That’s about 9 points better than Vanderbilt on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Vanderbilt has fallen from 19th to 60th, while Kentucky has climbed from 46th to 26th. Kickoff forecast at Kroger Field: 62 degrees, dry, wind 1 miles per hour. Kentucky is 6 and 1 against the spread this season. Kentucky is 3 and 1 against the spread at home. On offense, Kentucky ranks 45th and Vanderbilt 99th. Kentucky has the better defense, 79th to 100th. The model has Kentucky winning 32 to 21, a 79 percent chance. Kentucky is favored by 10.5, up from 9.5 at the open, toward our model. The total is 52.5. Our model makes it Kentucky by 13.5, with a total near 52.5. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	VAN	UK	Over	Under	VAN	UK
BetMGMMGM	+10.5-108	-10.5-110	51.5-115	51.5-102	+340	-450
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+10.5-107	-10.5-113	52-110	52-110	+344	-440
BetRiversBetRivers	+10.5-113	-10.5-113	52-110	52-113	+320	-455
BetUSBetUS	+10.5-105	-10.5-115	52-110	52-110	+345	-440
BovadaBovada	+11-110	-11-110	52-115	52-105	+340	-460
DraftKingsDK	+10.5-110	-10.5-110	52.5-105	52.5-115	+340	-440
FanDuelFD	+10.5-105	-10.5-115	51.5-115	51.5-105	+340	-450
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+10.5-103	-10.5-109	52-108	52-108	+344	-440
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+10.5-110	-10.5-110	52-110	52-110	+340	-461

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	VAN	UK	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+6.5+103	-6.5-123	26.5-116	26.5-104
DraftKingsDK	+6.5-102	-6.5-118	26.5-112	26.5-108
FanDuelFD	+6.5+104	-6.5-128	26.5-120	26.5-102

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

VAN +10.5

UK -10.5

Bets42% 58%

Money49% 51%

Winner

VAN

Bets5% 95%

Money8% 92%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UK as a 10.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 10.9; 55.8 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UCLA vs CAL 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	7–33	L	U51
Very close	UCF vs BAY 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	35–36	L	O56
Very close	CAL vs NCSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	23–24	L	O46
Very close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Very close	MD vs ILL 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-13.5	24–27	L	U52
Very close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	29–27	L	P56
Very close	WAKE vs STAN 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-14.5	57–3	W	O54.5
Very close	BAY vs COLO 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-8.5	23–13	W	U54.5
Very close	VT vs GT 2026 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-8.5	34–24	W	O55.5
Very close	MEM vs ECU 2026 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	41–34	L	O55.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN WWWLL	3-4	43%	2-0	2-1
UK WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-1	2-0

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; UK home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN OUOOO	5-2	71%	3-4
UK OOOOU	5-2	71%	6-1

In 1565 games with totals 48.5–56.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
UK	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Vanderbilt

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ MSST	No meeting since 2023
Nov 14	vs ALA	L14–30LU
Nov 21	@ FLA	L14–38L

Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	@ TENN	L34–56LO
Nov 14	vs FLA	W38–7WO
Nov 21	@ MIZ	L21–38LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

VAN 2–1 UK VAN leads · 3 games since 2023 · VAN has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 22 2025	Kentucky 17 @ Vanderbilt 45	VAN -6.5	VAN W
Oct 12 2024	Vanderbilt 20 @ Kentucky 13	UK -12.5	VAN W
Sep 23 2023	Kentucky 45 @ Vanderbilt 28	UK -13	UK W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+13.0 →+2.1▼ 10.9#60

UK+5.5 →+11.4▲ 5.9#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

VAN

Longer bar = better

#99

Offense

UK better ▶

#45

#100

Defense

UK better ▶

#79

−0.7 #121

Turnovers

UK better ▶

+1.6 #6

64 plays #91

Pace

Even

64 plays #95

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Even matchup

	VAN off	UK def	Edge
Points / game	23.6 #101	25.9 #91	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #97	5.25 #58	UK
PPA / play	+0.08 #98	+0.05 #53	UK
Success rate	40% #101	45% #113	Even

When UK has the ball

Advantage: UK offense

	UK off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #46	29.7 #115	UK
Yards / play	6.07 #54	5.64 #89	UK
PPA / play	+0.19 #51	+0.14 #98	UK
Success rate	48% #29	44% #99	UK

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the UK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.6 #86	4.4 #130	10.0 #116	7.7 #32	5.9 #96	13.6 #65
UK allowed	4.9 #72	8.7 #98	13.6 #93	4.3 #54	6.0 #64	10.3 #55

UK scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UK scored	6.0 #75	10.3 #47	16.3 #59	7.0 #43	7.1 #62	14.1 #55
VAN allowed	6.9 #112	12.3 #132	19.1 #129	5.0 #72	5.6 #53	10.6 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.