Tennessee @ South Carolina: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sat, Oct 24, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at South Carolina · Conference game

Kickoff forecast71°F12 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Tennessee

6-1 · Power #11

projected

Sat 3:30 PM ET

South Carolina

3-3 · Power #28

projected

TENN 47%

53% SC

Spread

SC -2.5

open TENN -2.5

Total

50.5

model 53

Spread edge

TENN by 7

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

1H spread

1H total

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTENN -2.5

CurrentSC -2.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenTENN -2.5

5 → SC

NowSC -2.5

5 pts toward South Carolina

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Now50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened TENN -2.5 · now SC -2.5 · moved 5 toward SCmodel TENN -4.5

model TENN -4.5

Openline modelNow

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 52% (376 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (227 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:32 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenTENN -2.5

CurrentSC -2.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Last update7:32 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game preview · 1:06

Tennessee at South Carolina: game preview

Made automatically from this game card’s numbers (Oct 23, 9:44 AM ET). The lines and the model’s numbers may have moved since.

Transcript

Our model likes the underdog, Tennessee. It’s Tennessee at South Carolina, Saturday at 3:30 PM Eastern. Our power ratings have Tennessee 11th and South Carolina 28th. That’s about 6.5 points better than South Carolina on a neutral field. Since the preseason, Tennessee has climbed from 16th to 11th, while South Carolina has held steady around 28th. Kickoff forecast at Williams-Brice Stadium: 70 degrees, dry, wind 12 miles per hour, gusting to 17. South Carolina comes off a bye. Tennessee games have gone under 6 of 7 times. South Carolina is 1 and 3 against the spread at home. South Carolina has the better offense, 38th to 61st. On defense, Tennessee ranks 15th and South Carolina 83rd. The model has South Carolina winning 27 to 26, a 53 percent chance. South Carolina is favored by 2.5, after opening at a different number. The total opened at 51.5 and sits at 50.5. Our model makes it Tennessee by 4.5, with a total near 53. Full breakdown · sportsanalysis.info Subscribe for every preview

More game previews ›

Books

9 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	TENN	SC	Over	Under	TENN	SC
BetMGMMGM	+2.5-110	-2.5-108	50.5-108	50.5-110	+110	-130
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	+110	-130
BetRiversBetRivers	+2.5-112	-2.5-112	50.5-114	50.5-109	+112	-137
BetUSBetUS	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	+110	-130
BovadaBovada	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	50.5-105	50.5-115	+110	-130
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-112	-2.5-108	50.5-110	50.5-110	+114	-135
FanDuelFD	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	+110	-132
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+2.5-106	-2.5-106	50.5-108	50.5-108	+110	-130
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+2.5-110	-2.5-110	50.5-110	50.5-110	+112	-138

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:32 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

1st-half prices

3 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotal

Book	Spread		Total
Book	TENN	SC	Over	Under
BetUSBetUS	+1.5-119	-1.5-101	25.5-112	25.5-108
DraftKingsDK	+0.5-112	-0.5-108	25.5-112	25.5-108
FanDuelFD	+1.5-120	-1.5-102	24.5-106	24.5-114

Prices from The Odds API’s 1st-half markets (graded on the halftime score). Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Spread

TENN +2.5

SC -2.5

Bets84% 16%

Money62% 38%

Money is 22 pts ahead of bets on SC -2.5

Winner

TENN

Bets66% 34%

Money89% 11%

Money is 23 pts ahead of bets on TENN

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 2.5-point home favorite against TENN, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 2.9; 46 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs LOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-1	31–38	L	O46.5
Close	UCF vs BYU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	24–37	L	O53.5
Close	WVU vs PITT 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–6	W	U47.75
Close	ISU vs BYU 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	27–41	L	O49
Close	AUB vs OU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	21–27	L	O43
Close	MIZ vs TA&M 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	27–6	W	U50.5
Close	ARIZ vs UTAH 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation	-2.5	42–18	W	O45.5
Close	SC vs UK 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–14	W	U52.5
Loose	LOU vs DUKE 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5	23–0	W	U47
Loose	SMU vs LOU 2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	38–6	W	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TENN LWWLW	4-3	57%	1-1	2-0
SC LLLLW	2-4	33%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: TENN away, as underdog; SC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TENN UUUUU	1-6	14%	6-1
SC UOOOU	4-2	67%	3-3

In 1518 games with totals 46.5–54.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 32% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TENN	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	2-8 20%
SC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 7	vs UK	W56–34WO
Nov 14	@ TA&M	W20–13WU
Nov 21	vs LSU	No meeting since 2023

South Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Oct 31	@ OU	L7–26LU
Nov 7	vs TA&M	L30–31WO
Nov 14	@ ARK	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TENN 29–11 SC (2 tied) TENN leads · 42 games since 1903 · TENN has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	South Carolina 20 @ Tennessee 41	TENN -12	TENN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TENN+14.3 →+17.7▲ 3.4#10

SC+9.4 →+11.1▲ 1.7#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

TENN

Longer bar = better

#61

Offense

SC better ▶

#38

#15

Defense

◀ TENN better

#83

+0.4 #42

Turnovers

◀ TENN better

−0.5 #108

69 plays #38

Pace

SC faster ▶

73 plays #9

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #42	25.5 #84	TENN
Yards / play	5.84 #70	5.37 #65	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #66	+0.16 #108	TENN
Success rate	43% #65	42% #76	Even

When SC has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	SC off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #17	14.7 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #34	4.58 #15	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #48	−0.14 #4	TENN
Success rate	45% #54	37% #29	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TENN scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	5.9 #76	8.1 #84	14.0 #83	10.4 #11	9.0 #29	19.4 #9
SC allowed	3.5 #41	8.5 #90	12.0 #70	6.7 #100	5.5 #50	12.2 #80

SC scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	8.0 #35	11.3 #31	19.3 #28	7.0 #43	10.2 #12	17.2 #24
TENN allowed	2.9 #23	2.9 #10	5.7 #5	3.9 #45	5.1 #45	9.0 #36

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.