Alabama @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F11 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Alabama

5-1 · Power #5

final

Final

Tennessee

5-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

ALA -7.5

✓ TENN W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

ALA 30–23 TENN

✗ ALA (71%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -1.5

CloseALA -7.5

Total56.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenALA -1.5

6 → ALA

CloseALA -7.5

6 pts toward Alabama

Total

Open56.5

▼ 6

Close50.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ALA -1.5 · closed ALA -7.5 · moved 6 toward ALAmodel ALA -8

model ALA -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 52% (171 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 55% (120 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenALA -1.5

CloseALA -7.5

Total56.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ALA as a 7.5-point road favorite at TENN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 26–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.2 against an average line of 7.5; 55 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 4 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU @ MICH 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	27–9	W	U43
Loose	ORE @ UTAH 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	35–6	W	U47.5
Loose	ALA @ UK 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-10.5	49–21	W	O46.25
Loose	IU @ IOWA 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & rest	-9.5	20–15	L	U47.5
Loose	ND @ CLEM 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-3	23–31	L	O44.5
Loose	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Loose	ALA @ AUB 2025 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	27–20	P	U48.5
Loose	CLEM @ PITT 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-12	24–20	L	U52
Loose	TA&M @ LSU 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	49–25	W	O50.5
Loose	PITT @ WVU 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7	24–31	L	P55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ALA WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-0	4-2
TENN WLWWL	3-3	50%	2-2	1-0

Venue/role: ALA away, as favorite; TENN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ALA OOOOU	5-1	83%	5-1
TENN OUUUU	1-5	17%	5-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 53% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ALA	7-3 70%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%
TENN	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ALA 2–1 TENN ALA leads · 3 games since 2023 · ALA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2025	Tennessee 20 @ Alabama 37	ALA -8.5	ALA W
Oct 19 2024	Alabama 17 @ Tennessee 24	ALA -3.5	TENN W
Oct 21 2023	Tennessee 20 @ Alabama 34	ALA -8.5	ALA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ALA+20.3 →+25.8▲ 5.5#3

TENN+14.3 →+15.6▲ 1.3#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

ALA

Longer bar = better

TENN

#10

Offense

◀ ALA better

#60

#43

Defense

TENN better ▶

#23

+1.2 #11

Turnovers

◀ ALA better

+0.2 #62

65 plays #92

Pace

TENN faster ▶

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ALA has the ball

Even matchup

	ALA off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	44.2 #3	15.5 #19	Even
Yards / play	7.02 #14	4.71 #25	Even
PPA / play	+0.35 #8	−0.11 #6	Even
Success rate	50% #15	38% #41	ALA

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	ALA def	Edge
Points / game	34.7 #44	20.7 #45	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #66	5.41 #72	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #61	−0.02 #27	ALA
Success rate	43% #70	36% #27	ALA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

ALA scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ALA scored	8.0 #40	17.7 #2	25.7 #7	8.2 #30	10.3 #13	18.5 #16
TENN allowed	3.3 #34	1.7 #2	5.0 #4	4.5 #66	6.0 #65	10.5 #66

TENN scoring against the ALA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	5.3 #90	9.0 #69	14.3 #80	11.0 #7	9.3 #23	20.3 #8
ALA allowed	5.2 #85	8.5 #91	13.7 #96	3.8 #45	3.2 #13	7.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.