Mississippi State @ LSU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2026)

Sat, Oct 17, 2026, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at LSU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F15 mphgusts 25DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Mississippi State

4-1 · Power #29

final

Final

LSU

4-2 · Power #6

▲ winner

Closing spread

LSU -17.5

✓ LSU W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 31 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 20–37 LSU

✓ LSU (88%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLSU -12.5

CloseLSU -17.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLSU -12.5

5 → LSU

CloseLSU -17.5

5 pts toward LSU

Total

Open59.5

▼ 3

Close56.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LSU -12.5 · closed LSU -17.5 · moved 5 toward LSUmodel LSU -11.5

model LSU -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 90%, covered 50% (147 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (219 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLSU -12.5

CloseLSU -17.5

Total59.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LSU as a 17.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LSU won 31–0; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 31 points stayed under 56.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22.9 against an average line of 16; 48.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TA&M vs MSST 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & spread	-17.5	31–9	W	U57.5
Close	ALA vs MIZ 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-16	34–0	W	U51.5
Close	TTU vs BYU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-13.5	29–7	W	U50.25
Close	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Close	ORE vs ORST 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar season form	-14	31–7	W	U61.25
Close	FSU vs SYR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-18.5	41–3	W	U53
Loose	TEX vs CLEM 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-13.5	38–24	W	O49.5
Loose	TA&M vs SC 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & spread	-17	30–17	L	U51.5
Loose	NEB vs MD 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-15.5	48–23	W	O52.5
Loose	LSU vs ARK 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar spread	-17.5	34–31	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WWWWL	4-1	80%	2-0	1-1
LSU LLWLL	2-4	33%	2-2	2-4

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; LSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST OUOUO	3-2	60%	4-1
LSU OUUOO	4-2	67%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 50% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
LSU	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MSST 0–1 LSU LSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · LSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 16 2023	LSU 41 @ Mississippi State 14	LSU -9.5	LSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+5.6 →+12.5▲ 6.9#22

LSU+12.7 →+20.9▲ 8.2#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

MSST

Longer bar = better

LSU

#24

Offense

Even

#25

#85

Defense

LSU better ▶

#15

−0.6 #113

Turnovers

LSU better ▶

−0.3 #96

71 plays #21

Pace

LSU faster ▶

81 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Even matchup

	MSST off	LSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #21	18.5 #33	Even
Yards / play	6.84 #18	4.28 #10	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #27	−0.06 #13	Even
Success rate	49% #28	31% #2	LSU

When LSU has the ball

Advantage: LSU offense

	LSU off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	42.0 #9	28.0 #110	LSU
Yards / play	6.48 #36	5.49 #76	LSU
PPA / play	+0.23 #37	+0.09 #75	LSU
Success rate	50% #17	42% #80	LSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the LSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	11.2 #12	11.6 #31	22.8 #16	7.2 #48	9.0 #28	16.2 #31
LSU allowed	3.3 #34	6.3 #57	9.7 #47	2.8 #27	4.7 #35	7.5 #26

LSU scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LSU scored	9.7 #24	9.3 #64	19.0 #41	13.2 #3	8.7 #37	21.8 #4
MSST allowed	6.0 #99	8.0 #79	14.0 #97	9.0 #128	5.0 #43	14.0 #109

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.