Maryland @ Nebraska: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Nebraska · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Maryland

2-2 · Power #72

final

Final

Nebraska

4-0 · Power #13

▲ winner

Closing spread

NEB -15.5

✓ NEB W

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 18–34 NEB

✓ NEB (87%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEB -12.5

CloseNEB -15.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNEB -12.5

3 → NEB

CloseNEB -15.5

3 pts toward Nebraska

Total

Open53.5

▼ 1

Close52.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NEB -12.5 · closed NEB -15.5 · moved 3 toward NEBmodel NEB -15.5 matches the line

model NEB -15.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 14.5–16.5 since 2023: won 88%, covered 48% (128 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (332 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNEB -12.5

CloseNEB -15.5

Total53.5 → 52.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NEB as a 15.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NEB won 48–23; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 52.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 87%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.3 against an average line of 15.4; 66.3 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 7 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UTAH vs KSU 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-17.5	51–47	L	O52.5
Close	LOU vs BC 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-14	56–28	W	O53.5
Close	IU vs MICH 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–15	L	U47.5
Close	ALA vs FSU 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar season form & total	-18.5	50–36	L	O50.5
Close	TA&M vs UK 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-16.5	21–31	L	O48.5
Close	MD vs IU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-14	44–17	W	O50
Close	MIA vs NCSU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & spread	-16.5	41–7	W	U54.5
Close	TCU vs WVU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	21–24	L	U52
Close	TEX vs TTU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-16	57–7	W	O53.5
Close	UCLA vs PUR 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	52–38	W	O53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WWLL	2-2	50%	1-0	0-2
NEB WWLW	3-1	75%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; NEB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OUOO	3-1	75%	2-2
NEB OOUU	2-2	50%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 764 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
NEB	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MD 1–4 NEB NEB leads · 5 games since 2016 · NEB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Nebraska 34 @ Maryland 31	NEB -6.5	MD W
Nov 11 2023	Maryland 13 @ Nebraska 10	MD -2	MD W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+0.7 →+2.0▲ 1.3#60

NEB+6.6 →+12.9▲ 6.3#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

NEB

#65

Offense

NEB better ▶

#18

#75

Defense

NEB better ▶

#20

+0.3 #60

Turnovers

NEB better ▶

+1.3 #14

73 plays #16

Pace

◀ MD faster

70 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: NEB defense

	MD off	NEB def	Edge
Points / game	32.3 #61	12.0 #9	NEB
Yards / play	5.95 #74	4.10 #10	NEB
PPA / play	+0.14 #76	−0.06 #18	NEB
Success rate	46% #49	37% #42	Even

When NEB has the ball

Advantage: NEB offense

	NEB off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	42.5 #15	25.8 #94	NEB
Yards / play	6.92 #23	5.12 #63	NEB
PPA / play	+0.43 #5	+0.06 #72	NEB
Success rate	49% #27	40% #71	NEB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MD scoring against the NEB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	6.0 #73	11.0 #50	17.0 #66	8.8 #30	6.5 #85	15.3 #51
NEB allowed	3.3 #36	2.5 #11	5.8 #9	2.5 #25	3.8 #27	6.3 #16

NEB scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NEB scored	10.5 #20	12.0 #38	22.5 #21	5.3 #88	14.8 #2	20.0 #12
MD allowed	3.5 #45	10.0 #110	13.5 #94	7.3 #110	5.0 #48	12.3 #90

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.