Purdue @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Purdue

1-3 · Power #59

▲ winner

Final

Illinois

2-2 · Power #53

final

Closing spread

ILL -9.5

✓ PUR W

Total

62.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 26–36 ILL

✗ ILL (76%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenILL -10

CloseILL -9.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -10

0.5 → PUR

CloseILL -9.5

0.5 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open60.5

▲ 2

Close62.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -10 · closed ILL -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward PURmodel ILL -12.5

model ILL -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 47% (171 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenILL -10

CloseILL -9.5

Total60.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 9.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: PUR won 24–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 62.5, as in 9 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 14.6 against an average line of 10.9; 51.4 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TCU vs OKST 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	38–13	W	U68.5
Very close	UNC vs WAKE 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	31–24	L	U64.5
Very close	ILL vs RUTG 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-13	35–13	W	U63.5
Very close	TCU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	49–28	W	O60
Very close	NCSU vs VT 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10	21–23	L	U57.5
Very close	BGSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	31–13	W	U57.5
Very close	CONN vs AFA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & total	-7.5	26–16	W	U64.5
Very close	UL vs APP 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10	34–24	P	U64
Very close	TXST vs ARST 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-13.5	41–9	W	U66
Very close	ODU vs APP 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	24–21	L	U62.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LWLL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-2
ILL LLWW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR OOOO	4-0	100%	1-3
ILL OOOO	4-0	100%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 40 in the 4th quarter and got 18. 46% of games with totals 58.5–66.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%
ILL	6-4 60%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

PUR 48–47 ILL (6 tied) PUR leads · 101 games since 1892 · PUR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2025	Illinois 43 @ Purdue 27	ILL -7.5	ILL W
Oct 12 2024	Purdue 49 @ Illinois 50	ILL -21.5	PUR W
Sep 30 2023	Illinois 19 @ Purdue 44	Pick’em	PUR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR−1.8 →−2.5▼ 0.7#75

ILL+7.7 →+5.9▼ 1.8#43

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

PUR

Longer bar = better

ILL

#51

Offense

ILL better ▶

#30

#137

Defense

ILL better ▶

#110

−0.5 #101

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

0.0 #76

71 plays #32

Pace

◀ PUR faster

60 plays #123

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: PUR offense

	PUR off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #63	26.5 #101	PUR
Yards / play	5.95 #73	5.73 #95	PUR
PPA / play	+0.29 #30	+0.26 #127	PUR
Success rate	47% #38	45% #118	PUR

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ILL offense

	ILL off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #53	39.5 #136	ILL
Yards / play	7.03 #21	7.08 #135	ILL
PPA / play	+0.29 #26	+0.38 #138	ILL
Success rate	51% #19	51% #138	ILL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	6.0 #74	5.8 #113	11.8 #102	9.3 #25	7.8 #57	17.0 #31
ILL allowed	7.8 #116	10.3 #115	18.0 #122	2.5 #26	6.0 #71	8.5 #42

ILL scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	11.3 #14	10.3 #58	21.5 #28	3.3 #118	9.3 #32	12.5 #80
PUR allowed	9.5 #129	11.0 #124	20.5 #132	4.3 #62	11.0 #132	15.3 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.