Minnesota @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

4-1 · Power #65

final

Final

Purdue

2-3 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

MINN -2.5

✓ PUR W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 27–25 PUR

✗ MINN (56%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMINN -4.5

CloseMINN -2.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -4.5

2 → PUR

CloseMINN -2.5

2 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -4.5 · closed MINN -2.5 · moved 2 toward PURmodel MINN -1

model MINN -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (279 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 49% (147 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMINN -4.5

CloseMINN -2.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 2.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: PUR won 41–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 48.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 2.9; 54.4 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ISU @ COLO 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3	17–24	L	U52.5
Very close	NCSU @ WAKE 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2	26–6	W	U43
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	ORST @ NEV 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	37–42	L	O47
Very close	VT @ SYR 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	31–38	L	O53.5
Very close	FRES @ HAW 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–21	L	U47.5
Very close	ARIZ @ COLO 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	52–17	W	O52.5
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	DUKE @ UVA 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	27–30	L	O47
Very close	DUKE @ WAKE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	23–17	W	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN WLWWW	4-1	80%	1-0	2-0
PUR LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: MINN away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OUUOU	2-3	40%	4-1
PUR OOOOU	4-1	80%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 707 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–52.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
PUR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MINN 42–36 PUR (3 tied) MINN leads · 81 games since 1894 · PUR has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Purdue 20 @ Minnesota 27	MINN -7.5	PUR W
Nov 11 2023	Minnesota 30 @ Purdue 49	MINN -2	PUR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN+1.1 →+3.7▲ 2.6#55

PUR−1.8 →−0.3▲ 1.5#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

MINN

Longer bar = better

PUR

#83

Offense

PUR better ▶

#49

#35

Defense

◀ MINN better

#132

+0.6 #37

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

−0.2 #81

65 plays #87

Pace

PUR faster ▶

69 plays #45

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #55	35.0 #131	MINN
Yards / play	5.46 #99	6.74 #130	MINN
PPA / play	+0.03 #112	+0.31 #135	MINN
Success rate	43% #67	49% #132	MINN

When PUR has the ball

Even matchup

	PUR off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #66	18.0 #32	MINN
Yards / play	5.92 #69	4.61 #23	MINN
PPA / play	+0.29 #21	−0.02 #34	Even
Success rate	47% #40	39% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	9.6 #27	8.2 #83	17.8 #51	6.0 #72	8.2 #47	14.2 #61
PUR allowed	7.6 #120	10.2 #119	17.8 #121	3.4 #41	10.8 #133	14.2 #113

PUR scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	5.4 #87	6.6 #104	12.0 #96	8.0 #33	7.8 #57	15.8 #41
MINN allowed	2.8 #23	9.0 #102	11.8 #68	0.6 #2	5.6 #60	6.2 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.