Maryland @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sat, Oct 10, 2026, 4:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Maryland

2-3 · Power #72

final

Final

Ohio State

4-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -31.5

✓ MD W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 61 pts

Model before kickoff

MD 12–43 OSU

✓ OSU (99%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -37.5

CloseOSU -31.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -37.5

6 → MD

CloseOSU -31.5

6 pts toward Maryland

Total

Open54.5

▲ 2

Close56.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -37.5 · closed OSU -31.5 · moved 6 toward MDmodel OSU -30.5

model OSU -30.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 30.5–32.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 52% (58 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 54% (83 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -37.5

CloseOSU -31.5

Total54.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like OSU as a 31.5-point home favorite against MD, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 45–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 61 points went over 56.5, as in 0 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 99%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

0 of 50%

Below normal · usually 55%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 20.6 against an average line of 28.8; 43.4 points a game (usually 54.9). When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU vs RUTG 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & situation	-28.5	42–9	W	U54.5
Loose	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Loose	SMU vs MOST 2026 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-30.5	34–24	L	U60.5
Loose	ORE vs WIS 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-31.5	21–7	L	U45
Loose	MISS vs MSST 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26	26–14	L	U63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	0-3
OSU WWWLW	4-1	80%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OUOOO	4-1	80%	2-3
OSU OUOOU	3-2	60%	4-1

Went over in Q4. Of 641 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 32% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MD	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%
OSU	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MD 0–1 OSU OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Maryland 17 @ Ohio State 37	OSU -17.5	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MD+0.7 →+0.7–#65

OSU+27.1 →+26.0▼ 1.1#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

OSU

#88

Offense

OSU better ▶

#89

Defense

OSU better ▶

#22

0.0 #73

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+0.8 #32

72 plays #18

Pace

◀ MD faster

69 plays #48

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MD has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	MD off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	30.4 #71	12.6 #10	OSU
Yards / play	5.91 #75	4.21 #11	OSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #109	−0.03 #31	OSU
Success rate	42% #95	37% #37	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	MD def	Edge
Points / game	42.2 #14	30.2 #115	OSU
Yards / play	7.50 #6	5.32 #67	OSU
PPA / play	+0.36 #8	+0.11 #84	OSU
Success rate	53% #5	43% #88	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

MD scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MD scored	8.0 #45	10.2 #55	18.2 #51	7.0 #50	5.2 #109	12.2 #83
OSU allowed	2.6 #19	1.8 #4	4.4 #4	0.6 #2	7.6 #104	8.2 #33

OSU scoring against the MD defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	13.8 #2	11.8 #26	25.6 #9	6.2 #69	10.4 #16	16.6 #29
MD allowed	4.2 #60	12.2 #127	16.4 #117	5.8 #86	8.0 #109	13.8 #104

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.