Ohio State @ Iowa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Iowa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff70°F9 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

3-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Iowa

4-0 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

OSU -14.5

✓ OSU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 31–16 IOWA

✓ OSU (84%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -14

CloseOSU -14.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -14

0.5 → OSU

CloseOSU -14.5

0.5 pts toward Ohio State

Total

Open44.5

▲ 2

Close46.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -14 · closed OSU -14.5 · moved 0.5 toward OSUmodel OSU -12.5

model OSU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 49% (73 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenOSU -14

CloseOSU -14.5

Total44.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 14.5-point road favorite at IOWA, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 31–14; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.7 against an average line of 12.8; 48.5 points a game (usually 52.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU @ ILL 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-15	34–16	W	U51.5
Close	MISS @ SC 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar situation	-10	27–3	W	U53
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	PSU @ MINN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar situation	-11	26–25	L	O45
Close	IU @ PSU 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-14	27–24	L	O50.5
Close	ALA @ UK 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	45–17	W	O47.5
Loose	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5
Loose	TTU @ HOU 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & spread	-13	35–11	W	U51.5
Loose	OSU @ WIS 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-14.5	24–10	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	2-1
IOWA WLWW	3-1	75%	2-1	1-0

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; IOWA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1
IOWA UUOU	1-3	25%	4-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
IOWA	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OSU 1–0 IOWA OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2024	Iowa 7 @ Ohio State 35	OSU -17.5	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+27.1 →+25.3▼ 1.8#2

IOWA+11.4 →+11.2▼ 0.2#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

OSU

Longer bar = better

IOWA

Offense

◀ OSU better

#49

#29

Defense

IOWA better ▶

#12

+0.5 #47

Turnovers

IOWA better ▶

+1.0 #26

67 plays #60

Pace

◀ OSU faster

65 plays #82

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	IOWA def	Edge
Points / game	45.0 #6	8.0 #1	Even
Yards / play	7.76 #6	4.10 #11	Even
PPA / play	+0.41 #8	−0.04 #26	Even
Success rate	55% #4	32% #9	Even

When IOWA has the ball

Even matchup

	IOWA off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #58	12.3 #10	OSU
Yards / play	6.60 #38	4.16 #13	OSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #45	0.00 #44	Even
Success rate	45% #53	38% #47	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the IOWA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	14.8 #1	13.0 #25	27.8 #6	6.0 #71	11.3 #12	17.3 #31
IOWA allowed	1.8 #8	3.3 #18	5.0 #6	1.5 #14	1.5 #3	3.0 #3

IOWA scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IOWA scored	12.0 #14	11.0 #51	23.0 #19	3.5 #114	6.3 #89	9.8 #110
OSU allowed	1.8 #8	2.3 #9	4.0 #3	0.8 #4	7.5 #108	8.3 #38

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.