Auburn @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff75°F1 mphWet0.8 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Auburn

3-1 · Power #25

final

Final

Tennessee

3-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -6

✓ TENN W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

AUB 24–31 TENN

✓ TENN (68%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTENN -7.5

CloseTENN -6

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -7.5

1.5 → AUB

CloseTENN -6

1.5 pts toward Auburn

Total

Open57.5

▼ 3

Close54.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -7.5 · closed TENN -6 · moved 1.5 toward AUBmodel TENN -9

model TENN -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (173 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 57% (111 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTENN -7.5

CloseTENN -6

Total57.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 6-point home favorite against AUB, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 24–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 5.1; 54.7 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Very close	MISS vs TA&M 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	38–35	P	O52.5
Very close	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Very close	TENN vs TA&M 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-3	20–13	W	U54.5
Very close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Very close	WSU vs ARIZ 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	6–44	L	U56.5
Very close	USC vs IOWA 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	26–21	L	U48.5
Close	TENN vs OU 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-3	27–33	L	O55.5
Close	WASH vs ILL 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	42–25	W	O54.5
Close	PITT vs CAL 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	17–15	L	U57.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AUB LWLL	1-3	25%	—	0-1
TENN LWLW	2-2	50%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: AUB away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AUB UUOU	1-3	25%	3-1
TENN UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 31 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 51% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AUB	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	4-6 40%
TENN	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AUB+11.9 →+11.2▼ 0.7#24

TENN+14.3 →+16.5▲ 2.2#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

AUB

Longer bar = better

TENN

#82

Offense

TENN better ▶

#56

#46

Defense

TENN better ▶

#24

0.0 #73

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.5 #44

71 plays #26

Pace

Even

71 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AUB has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	AUB off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #75	15.5 #26	TENN
Yards / play	5.80 #80	4.56 #30	TENN
PPA / play	+0.12 #85	−0.13 #8	TENN
Success rate	42% #87	36% #30	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Even matchup

	TENN off	AUB def	Edge
Points / game	40.0 #24	20.8 #51	TENN
Yards / play	6.19 #63	4.75 #39	AUB
PPA / play	+0.19 #63	+0.01 #46	Even
Success rate	43% #73	38% #48	AUB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

AUB scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AUB scored	7.5 #55	9.5 #69	17.0 #69	7.5 #49	5.5 #103	13.0 #76
TENN allowed	5.0 #81	0.8 #2	5.8 #10	3.3 #40	6.5 #80	9.8 #58

TENN scoring against the AUB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	8.0 #47	11.0 #51	19.0 #46	12.3 #7	8.8 #39	21.0 #9
AUB allowed	2.5 #24	7.0 #67	9.5 #41	5.0 #76	6.3 #78	11.3 #81

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.