Vanderbilt @ Georgia: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 12:45 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Georgia · Conference game

Weather at kickoff76°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Vanderbilt

3-1 · Power #60

final

Final

Georgia

4-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -25.5

✓ VAN W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 52 pts

Model before kickoff

VAN 15–40 UGA

✓ UGA (96%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -23.5

CloseUGA -25.5

Total57.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -23.5

2 → UGA

CloseUGA -25.5

2 pts toward Georgia

Total

Open57.5

▼ 8

Close49.5

Down 8 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -23.5 · closed UGA -25.5 · moved 2 toward UGAmodel UGA -23.5

model UGA -23.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 97%, covered 47% (78 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (327 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUGA -23.5

CloseUGA -25.5

Total57.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like UGA as a 25.5-point home favorite against VAN, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: UGA won 38–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 5 similar games. 52 points went over 49.5, as in 3 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

2 of 540%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 32.6 against an average line of 26.5; 59.4 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	WASH vs CAL 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-20.5	59–32	W	O55.5
Loose	ORE vs OKST 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-28.5	69–3	W	O55.5
Loose	IU vs MSU 2025 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-26.5	38–13	L	O49.5
Loose	OSU vs OHIO 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest	-28.5	37–9	L	U49.5
Loose	ND vs MSU 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-28.5	27–10	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VAN LLWW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0
UGA WWWW	4-0	100%	3-0	4-0

Venue/role: VAN away, as underdog; UGA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
VAN UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1
UGA OOOO	4-0	100%	4-0

Went over in Q4. Of 721 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–53.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VAN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%
UGA	9-1 90%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

VAN 0–1 UGA UGA leads · 1 game since 2023 · UGA has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Georgia 37 @ Vanderbilt 20	UGA -33.5	VAN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

VAN+13.0 →+6.7▼ 6.3#42

UGA+22.1 →+25.1▲ 3.0#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

VAN

Longer bar = better

UGA

#93

Offense

UGA better ▶

#40

Defense

UGA better ▶

+0.3 #55

Turnovers

UGA better ▶

+1.3 #18

66 plays #69

Pace

◀ VAN faster

59 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When VAN has the ball

Advantage: UGA defense

	VAN off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	28.3 #82	13.3 #18	UGA
Yards / play	5.49 #104	3.54 #1	UGA
PPA / play	+0.08 #95	−0.22 #1	UGA
Success rate	42% #92	31% #3	UGA

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: UGA offense

	UGA off	VAN def	Edge
Points / game	54.8 #1	21.8 #60	UGA
Yards / play	8.15 #2	4.94 #45	UGA
PPA / play	+0.41 #6	−0.04 #29	UGA
Success rate	56% #3	35% #27	UGA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

VAN scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
VAN scored	5.5 #86	4.3 #126	9.8 #120	10.0 #18	8.5 #43	18.5 #24
UGA allowed	0.0 #1	3.0 #18	3.0 #2	1.5 #13	8.8 #116	10.3 #59

UGA scoring against the VAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	15.8 #1	17.5 #5	33.3 #2	10.3 #16	11.3 #11	21.5 #9
VAN allowed	6.8 #105	7.5 #71	14.3 #102	3.5 #45	4.0 #29	7.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.