Liberty @ Delaware: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Fri, Oct 2, 2026, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Delaware · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F10 mphgusts 17Wet1.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Liberty

3-1 · Power #67

▲ winner

Final

Delaware

2-2 · Power #113

final

Closing spread

LIB -7

✓ LIB W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

LIB 28–22 DEL

✓ LIB (68%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLIB -7

CloseLIB -7

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLIB -7

no move

CloseLIB -7

No change since the open

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LIB -7 · unchangedmodel LIB -5

model LIB -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 68%, covered 56% (150 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLIB -7

CloseLIB -7

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LIB as a 7-point road favorite at DEL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: LIB won 30–14; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.5 against an average line of 5.6; 50.9 points a game (usually 52.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM @ UL 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	22–10	W	U54.5
Very close	LIB @ BGSU 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	13–23	L	U51.5
Very close	USF @ RICE 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	28–35	L	O54
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	CONN @ BUFF 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	20–17	P	U51.5
Very close	FRES @ CSU 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–49	L	O47.5
Very close	LT @ DEL 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	24–25	L	U56.5
Very close	TULN @ FAU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-9	24–8	W	U47
Very close	JMU @ USU 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar team ratings & rest	-5	45–38	W	O52.5
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	42–14	W	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIB LLWW	2-2	50%	1-1	2-1
DEL WWWL	3-1	75%	2-0	1-1

Venue/role: LIB away, as favorite; DEL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIB UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1
DEL UOUU	1-3	25%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 53% of games with totals 47.5–55.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIB	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
DEL	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LIB 1–0 DEL LIB leads · 1 game since 2023 · LIB has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 1 2025	Delaware 30 @ Liberty 59	LIB -3.5	LIB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LIB−8.8 →−2.9▲ 5.9#78

DEL−14.3 →−9.7▲ 4.6#108

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

LIB

Longer bar = better

DEL

#63

Offense

◀ LIB better

#97

#36

Defense

◀ LIB better

#80

+0.3 #56

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #67

65 plays #92

Pace

Even

65 plays #79

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LIB has the ball

Even matchup

	LIB off	DEL def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #73	24.5 #83	Even
Yards / play	6.38 #54	5.35 #77	LIB
PPA / play	+0.13 #79	+0.11 #84	Even
Success rate	46% #45	41% #76	LIB

When DEL has the ball

Advantage: LIB defense

	DEL off	LIB def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #105	18.8 #38	LIB
Yards / play	5.52 #101	4.74 #40	LIB
PPA / play	+0.11 #87	+0.01 #49	LIB
Success rate	42% #93	33% #15	LIB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

LIB scoring against the DEL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LIB scored	9.3 #38	4.8 #126	14.0 #88	6.0 #72	10.5 #21	16.5 #39
DEL allowed	7.0 #111	7.0 #66	14.0 #100	8.8 #129	1.8 #5	10.5 #67

DEL scoring against the LIB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEL scored	1.8 #130	12.3 #35	14.0 #88	3.5 #114	5.8 #98	9.3 #113
LIB allowed	5.8 #98	9.5 #104	15.3 #107	3.5 #45	0.0 #1	3.5 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.