Penn State @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Fri, Oct 2, 2026, 8:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F3 mphDryWeather watch ›

Penn State

3-1 · Power #32

final

Final

Northwestern

2-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

PSU -3

✓ NU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 26–23 NU

✗ PSU (60%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -7

ClosePSU -3

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -7

4 → NU

ClosePSU -3

4 pts toward Northwestern

Total

Open48.5

▼ 2

Close46.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -7 · closed PSU -3 · moved 4 toward NUmodel PSU -5.5

model PSU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (219 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (76 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenPSU -7

ClosePSU -3

Total48.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 3-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NU won 34–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 47 points went over 46.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 57%

Favorite covered

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 12.5 against an average line of 5.1; 52.9 points a game (usually 52.6). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ALA @ TA&M 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	26–20	W	O45.5
Close	BYU @ ARIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	33–27	W	O46.5
Close	MIA @ PITT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	38–7	W	U49
Close	UGA @ AUB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar total & situation	-4.5	20–10	W	U46.5
Close	JMU @ CCU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-4	56–14	W	O50.5
Close	CLEM @ MIA 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6	20–28	L	O45
Close	UTAH @ ISU 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–17	W	O46.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	FSU @ FLA 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	24–15	W	U48.5
Close	ALA @ MIZ 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–24	P	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU WLWL	2-2	50%	0-1	2-2
NU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	1-0

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1
NU OOO	3-0	100%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 574 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
NU	5-5 50%	7-2-1 78%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PSU 16–7 NU PSU leads · 23 games since 1993 · NU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2025	Northwestern 22 @ Penn State 21	PSU -20.5	NU W
Sep 30 2023	Penn State 41 @ Northwestern 13	PSU -27	PSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+12.7 →+13.7▲ 1.0#17

NU+2.4 →+5.7▲ 3.3#45

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

PSU

Longer bar = better

#57

Offense

NU better ▶

#35

#10

Defense

◀ PSU better

#81

+1.8 #8

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #12

66 plays #70

Pace

◀ PSU faster

62 plays #107

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	36.8 #36	18.0 #35	Even
Yards / play	6.45 #45	5.72 #94	PSU
PPA / play	+0.24 #44	+0.11 #84	PSU
Success rate	41% #101	45% #110	Even

When NU has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	NU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #59	11.5 #8	PSU
Yards / play	6.73 #30	4.03 #7	PSU
PPA / play	+0.33 #19	−0.07 #17	Even
Success rate	48% #31	31% #6	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	9.3 #38	12.0 #40	21.3 #35	10.3 #16	5.3 #104	15.5 #46
NU allowed	0.7 #3	5.3 #41	6.0 #17	5.3 #82	6.7 #85	12.0 #88

NU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	4.7 #96	5.7 #116	10.3 #109	9.3 #26	13.0 #6	22.3 #8
PSU allowed	0.8 #4	3.3 #20	4.0 #4	0.8 #4	6.8 #86	7.5 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.