Washington @ USC: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at USC · Conference game

Weather at kickoff95°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

Washington

3-1 · Power #43

final

Final

USC

4-1 · Power #18

▲ winner

Closing spread

USC -7.5

✓ WASH W

Total

58.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

WASH 24–32 USC

✓ USC (71%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -10

CloseUSC -7.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSC -10

2.5 → WASH

CloseUSC -7.5

2.5 pts toward Washington

Total

Open57.5

▲ 1

Close58.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USC -10 · closed USC -7.5 · moved 2.5 toward WASHmodel USC -9.5

model USC -9.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (226 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 51% (261 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenUSC -10

CloseUSC -7.5

Total57.5 → 58.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USC as a 7.5-point home favorite against WASH, the favorite won 10, covered 9, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: USC won 25–21; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 58.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 71%

Favorite covered

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 50%

Wins above normal, covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.9 against an average line of 7.8; 58.1 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KSU vs CIN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	41–15	W	O54.5
Close	LOU vs PITT 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	37–9	W	U57.5
Close	KSU vs ARIZ 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	31–7	W	U61
Close	UGA vs MISS 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	43–35	W	O56.5
Close	ISU vs CIN 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	34–17	W	U52.5
Close	CLEM vs UNC 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-7.5	31–20	W	U59.5
Close	TCU vs SMU 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest	-6.5	35–24	W	U63.5
Close	KSU vs KU 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	29–27	L	P56
Close	TEX vs ARK 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-8.5	52–37	W	O58
Close	ALA vs TENN 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	37–20	W	U60.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WASH LLLL	0-4	0%	—	—
USC LWLLL	1-4	20%	1-3	1-3

Venue/role: WASH away, as underdog; USC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WASH UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1
USC OUOOO	4-1	80%	4-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 49% of games with totals 54.5–62.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WASH	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
USC	7-3 70%	2-8 20%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WASH 2–0 USC WASH leads · 2 games since 2023 · WASH has won the last 2 meetings

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2024	USC 21 @ Washington 26	USC -2.5	WASH W
Nov 4 2023	Washington 52 @ USC 42	WASH -3	WASH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WASH+13.7 →+8.9▼ 4.8#33

USC+17.6 →+15.2▼ 2.4#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

WASH

Longer bar = better

USC

#69

Offense

USC better ▶

#18

#25

Defense

◀ WASH better

#101

+1.3 #17

Turnovers

◀ WASH better

−0.2 #79

64 plays #97

Pace

USC faster ▶

71 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WASH has the ball

Advantage: WASH offense

	WASH off	USC def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #85	26.4 #100	Even
Yards / play	6.21 #61	6.14 #115	WASH
PPA / play	+0.14 #74	+0.18 #110	WASH
Success rate	45% #57	41% #80	WASH

When USC has the ball

Even matchup

	USC off	WASH def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #25	16.8 #32	Even
Yards / play	6.93 #22	4.61 #33	Even
PPA / play	+0.34 #15	−0.13 #10	Even
Success rate	54% #8	35% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

WASH scoring against the USC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WASH scored	4.3 #99	11.0 #48	15.3 #78	1.8 #132	11.0 #12	12.8 #75
USC allowed	2.6 #25	4.8 #32	7.4 #17	7.6 #113	11.4 #134	19.0 #132

USC scoring against the WASH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USC scored	6.2 #70	17.0 #4	23.2 #17	8.2 #34	8.4 #42	16.6 #31
WASH allowed	4.3 #67	5.3 #36	9.5 #44	1.5 #14	5.8 #68	7.3 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.