Texas Tech @ Colorado: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sat, Oct 3, 2026, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Colorado · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F10 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

4-0 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Colorado

2-2 · Power #63

final

Closing spread

TTU -13.5

✓ TTU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 36 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 31–18 COLO

✓ TTU (82%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTTU -14.5

CloseTTU -13.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -14.5

1 → COLO

CloseTTU -13.5

1 pt toward Colorado

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -14.5 · closed TTU -13.5 · moved 1 toward COLOmodel TTU -11.5

model TTU -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 79%, covered 45% (94 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (370 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenTTU -14.5

CloseTTU -13.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 13.5-point road favorite at COLO, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 29–7; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 36 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 82%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 19 against an average line of 12.2; 55.2 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LOU @ VT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	28–16	W	U52.5
Very close	CLEM @ BC 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14	41–10	W	U54.5
Very close	ARIZ @ WSU 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-11.5	34–24	L	O47.5
Very close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Very close	ALA @ SC 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	29–22	L	O47.5
Very close	WASH @ UCLA 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-10.5	48–14	W	O51.5
Very close	SMU @ BC 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	45–13	W	O54.5
Very close	UCLA @ SDSU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & total	-13.5	35–10	W	U49
Very close	UK @ VAN 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	45–28	W	O50
Very close	ORE @ MICH 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-14.5	38–17	W	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	1-3
COLO WLLL	1-3	25%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; COLO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU UOOO	3-1	75%	4-0
COLO UOOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Stayed under: it needed 32 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-4 56%
COLO	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TTU 0–1 COLO COLO leads · 1 game since 2023 · COLO has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2024	Colorado 41 @ Texas Tech 27	COLO -4.5	COLO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+19.6 →+13.5▼ 6.1#18

COLO−0.7 →−0.8▼ 0.1#71

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

TTU

Longer bar = better

COLO

#40

Offense

◀ TTU better

#104

#50

Defense

Even

#63

−0.5 #106

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #100

69 plays #52

Pace

COLO faster ▶

73 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #41	24.5 #82	TTU
Yards / play	6.27 #58	5.04 #56	Even
PPA / play	+0.25 #39	+0.04 #58	Even
Success rate	51% #21	39% #56	TTU

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: TTU defense

	COLO off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #113	18.5 #36	TTU
Yards / play	5.47 #105	5.12 #64	TTU
PPA / play	+0.08 #97	+0.04 #60	TTU
Success rate	40% #102	36% #40	TTU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 138 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	5.3 #89	11.3 #45	16.5 #69	9.3 #25	10.5 #17	19.8 #14
COLO allowed	3.5 #45	10.3 #118	13.8 #95	4.3 #65	6.5 #81	10.8 #70

COLO scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	6.0 #74	7.0 #99	13.0 #94	3.3 #117	5.3 #105	8.5 #122
TTU allowed	2.5 #22	7.8 #77	10.3 #50	4.3 #65	4.0 #30	8.3 #37

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.